Iswekile emhlophe
Iswekile ekrwada iyothusa inkxaso yasekhaya
Iswekile ekrwada ibiguquguquka kancinane izolo, inyuswe kukulindela ukwehla kwemveliso yeswekile yaseBrazil. Ikhontrakthi ephambili iphakamileyo kwi-14.77 cent pounds kwaye yawela kwi-14.54 cents ngepounds. Ixabiso lokugqibela lokuvala lekhontrakthi ephambili yenyuka i-0.41% ukuvala kwi-14.76 cents ngepounds. Isivuno seswekile kwezona ndawo zivelisa ummoba kumbindi nasemazantsi eBrazil siya kuhla siye kutsho kwiminyaka emithathu ephantsi kulo nyaka uzayo. Ngenxa yokunqongophala kokutyala ngokutsha, isivuno somoba kwindawo nganye siya kuncitshiswa kwaye imveliso ye-ethanol iya kwandiswa. I-Kingsman iqikelela ukuba imveliso yeswekile phakathi nakumazantsi eBrazil ngo-2018-19 yi-33.99 yezigidi zeetoni. Ngaphezulu kwe-90% yemveliso yaseTshayina yeTangtang kumbindi nakumazantsi eBrazil. Eli nqanaba lemveliso yeswekile lithetha ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka we-2.1 yezigidi zeetoni kwaye kuya kuba kwinqanaba eliphantsi ukusuka kwi-31.22 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2015-16. Kwelinye icala, iindaba zokulahlwa kweFandesi enguvimba weState zaye zetyiswa ngokuthe ngcembe yimarike. Nangona ixabiso leswekile lehla kwakhona ebudeni bemini, lawufumana umhlaba walo owawulahlekile ekupheleni kwemini. Ngokubhekiselele kumava ezinye iintlobo, sikholelwa ukuba ukuthengiswa koovimba akuyi kuchaphazela indlela yemarike yaphakathi kwexesha. Kubatyalo-mali bexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elifutshane, banokulinda ixabiso lokuzinza kwaye bathenge inkontileka ye-1801 kwi-bargain. Ngokuphathelele utyalo-mali olukhethiweyo, umrhwebi webala angaqhuba iphothifoliyo egqunyiweyo yokuthengisa inketho yokufowuna ecingelwayo ngesiseko sokubamba indawo kwixesha elifutshane. Kwiminyaka emi-1 ukuya kwemi-2 ezayo, ukusebenza kwepotfoliyo yokhetho olugqunyiweyo lunokusetyenziswa njengesiphuculi sengeniso ekhoyo. Ngeli xesha, kubatyali-mali bexabiso, banokuthenga iinketho zokufowuna ngexabiso lokusebenzisa i-6300 ukuya kwi-6400, Xa ixabiso leswekile linyuka ukwenza ukhetho lwenyani lube lixabiso lokwenyani, unokuvala inketho yokufowuna ngexabiso eliphantsi lokuzilolonga kwinqanaba lokuqala kwaye uqhubeke nokuthenga umjikelo omtsha wokukhetha umnxeba wenyani (ukhetho lokufowuna ngexabiso lokusebenzisa i-6500 okanye i-6600), kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe ukhethe i-6 inzuzo xa ukhetha i-6 inzuzo yeswekile ngokuthe ngcembe. / iitoni.
Umsonto wekotoni kunye nomqhaphu

Umqhaphu wase-US waqhubeka nokuwa, uxinzelelo lwasekhaya lwe-cotton callback
Ikamva lomqhaphu womkhenkce liqhubekile nokuwa izolo njengoko iinkxalabo malunga nomonakalo onokwenzeka kumqhaphu obangelwe yiNkanyamba uMaria wehla kwaye imarike yalinda ukuvunwa komqhaphu. I-ICE1 ye-cotton ye-Februwari ephezulu yawela i-1.05 cents / pound ukuya kwi-68.2 cent nge-pound. Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-USDA yakutshanje, kwiveki ye-14 kaSeptemba, kwi-2017 / 18, umnatha womqhaphu wase-US wafumana iitoni ze-63100, kunye nenyanga yokunyuka kwenyanga ye-47500 yeetoni, kunye nokunyuka konyaka kwiitoni ze-14600; ukuthunyelwa kweetoni ze-41100, inyanga ngenyanga yokwanda kweetoni ze-15700, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka weetoni ezingama-3600, ezibalelwa kwi-51% yomthamo othelekelelwayo wokuthumela ngaphandle (USDA ngoSeptemba), ongaphezulu kwe-9% ngaphezu kwexabiso le-avareji yeminyaka emihlanu. Kwicala lasekhaya, i-zhengmian kunye ne-cotton yarn yayiphantsi koxinzelelo, kwaye i-contract yokugqibela ye-cotton ye-1801 yavalwa Ukunikezelwa kwakuyi-15415 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-215 yuan / ton. Ikhontrakthi yomsonto we-cotton ka-1801 ivaliwe kwi-23210 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-175 yuan / ton. Ngokumalunga nokujikeleza komqhaphu ogciniweyo, iitoni ezingama-30024 zanikezelwa ngomhla wesine wale veki, kwaye eyona mali yayiyi-29460 yeetoni, kunye nesantya sokuthengiselana se-98.12%. Ixabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi lehle nge-124 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-14800 yuan / ton. Ngomhla wama-22 kuSeptemba, umthamo wokujikeleza ocwangcisiweyo wawuziitoni ezingama-26800, kuquka iitoni ze-19400 zomqhaphu weXinjiang. Amaxabiso e-spot abambekile kwaye anyuka kancinci, kunye ne-CC index 3128b yokurhweba kwi-15974 yuan / ton, ukunyuka kwe-2 yuan / itoni ukusuka kusuku lwangaphambili lokuthengisa. Isalathiso sexabiso leMisonto eQonyiweyo engama-32 yayiyi-yuan eyi-23400 / itoni kwaye loo 40 yeMisonto eQonyiweyo yayingama-26900 yuan / ton. Ngamafutshane, umqhaphu waseMerika waqhubeka usiwa, yaye ngokuthe ngcembe iintyatyambo zasekhaya zadweliswa. I-cotton ye-Zheng yachatshazelwa yile nto kwixesha elifutshane kwaye yahlala iguquguqukayo phakathi kunye nexesha elide. Abatyali-mali banokuthenga ngokuthe ngcembe kwiintengiso emva kokuba ithamsanqa elibi lomqhaphu waseMelika lityiswe. Kwangaxeshanye, indawo yamva nje yomqhaphu yomelela ngokuthe ngcembe, sinokulinda umsonto womqhaphu uzinze, kodwa ngokuthe ngcembe sithenge ngentengiselwano.
Ukutya kweembotyi

Ukusebenza ngamandla kweembotyi zesoya zase-US ezithunyelwa ngaphandle
Iimbotyi zesoya ze-CBOT ziphakame kancinci izolo, ukuvala kwi-970.6 cents / PU, kodwa iyonke isekwibhokisi yoluhlu. Ingxelo yeveki yokuthengisa kumazwe angaphandle ibintle. Kwiveki yamva nje, umthamo wentengiso yokuthumela ngaphandle kweembotyi zase-US ibiziitoni ezingama-2338000, ziphezulu kakhulu kunoqikelelo lwentengiso lwe-1.2-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni. Ngeli xesha, i-USDA ibhengeze ukuba abathengisi babucala bathengisa iitoni ze-132000 zeembotyi zesoya eChina. Okwangoku, imarike idlala umdlalo phakathi kwesivuno esiphezulu kunye nemfuno enamandla. Ukususela ngeCawe edlulileyo, izinga lokuvuna laliyi-4%, kwaye izinga elihle kwaye elihle laliyi-1% ukuya kwi-59% ngaphantsi kweveki edlulileyo. Isiphumo esibi sesivuno esiphezulu silindeleke, kwaye imfuno eqhubekayo eqinile iya kuxhasa ixabiso. Xa kuthelekiswa nokwangaphambili, sinethemba lokuthengisa. Ukongeza, ngokufika kwemveliso yase-US, ugxininiso lwamva luya kutshintshela ngokuthe ngcembe kutyalo lweembotyi zesoya zaseMzantsi Melika kunye nokukhula, kwaye umxholo woqikelelo uya kwanda. Lwaluncinci utshintsho kwicala lasekhaya. Izitokhwe zeembotyi zesoya kumachweba kunye neefektri zeoyile zawa kwiveki ephelileyo, kodwa zazisekwinqanaba eliphezulu ngexesha elifanayo lembali. Kwiveki ephelileyo, izinga lokuqalisa kwesityalo seoli liye landa kwi-58.72%, kwaye umthamo wemihla ngemihla wokurhweba wesonka sesoya unyuke ukusuka kwiitoni ze-115000 ngeveki ukuya kwiitoni ze-162000. Uluhlu lwezidlo zesoya zesityalo seoli ziye zancipha kwiiveki ezintandathu ezilandelelanayo ngaphambili, kodwa zabuya kancinci kwiveki ephelileyo, zinyuka ukusuka kwiitoni ze-824900 ukuya kwiitoni ze-837700 ukususela ngoSeptemba 17. Isityalo se-oyile kulindeleke ukuba siqhubeke sisebenza kwizinga eliphezulu kule veki ngenxa yenzuzo enkulu kunye nokulungiswa ngaphambi komhla wesizwe. Kule veki, umthamo wentengiselwano kunye nokuhanjiswa kwendawo unyuke kakhulu. Izolo, umthamo wokuthengiselana wesonka sesoya wawungama-303200 eetoni, ixabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi laliyi-2819 (+ 28), kwaye umthamo wokuhanjiswa wawuyi-79400 yeetoni. Kulindeleke ukuba isidlo sesoya siqhubeke silandela i-soybean yase-US kwelinye icala, kwaye isiseko siya kuhlala sizinzile kwinqanaba langoku okwangoku.
Amafutha e-oyile yesoya

Ukulungiswa kweoli engaphantsi kwempahla
Iimbotyi zesoya zase-US ziqhele ukuguquguquka kwaye zenyuka kancinci izolo, ngokuxhomekeke kwimfuno emandla yokuthumela ngaphandle kweembotyi zase-US. Emva kwethuba elifutshane lohlengahlengiso lwemalike, imfuno eyomeleleyo yase-US iya kunciphisa ukonyuka kokuphela koluhlu lwe-balance sheet kunye ne-warehouse kumlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa, kwaye ixabiso linokuhlala libuthathaka kude kube kwindawo ephantsi yesivuno samaxesha onyaka. UMa pan uwile izolo. Imveliso ngoSeptemba, kubandakanywa nexesha elizayo, kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele ngokukhawuleza. Ukusuka kwi-1 ukuya kwi-15 ye-9, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Ma palm kunyuke nge-20% ngenyanga ngenyanga, kunye nomthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-Indiya kunye nelizwekazi elingaphantsi liye lehla. Lo mjikelo wokunyuka kweMalay ube phezulu kakhulu. Nje ukuba isiphumo sibuyele kwinqanaba lamva, i-Ma pan iya kuba nohlengahlengiso olukhulu. Izinto ezisisiseko zasekhaya azitshintshanga kakhulu. Uluhlu lweoli yesundu yi-360000 yeetoni, kwaye i-oyile ye-soya yi-1.37 yezigidi zeetoni. Ukulungiswa kwesitokhwe kwimithendeleko kungene kwinqanaba elilandelayo, kwaye umthamo wokuthengiselana uye wehla ngokuthe ngcembe. Kwinqanaba lamva, ukufika kweoli yesundu eHong Kong ikhula ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye uxinzelelo luvela ngokuthe ngcembe. Ikamva leemveliso liqhubekile nokuwa izolo, umoya omfutshane uqhubekile, kwaye ioyile ilandele ukuncipha. Ukusebenza, kucetyiswa ukuba ulinde kwaye ubone umoya wemarike. Emva kokuba umngcipheko ukhululwe ngokupheleleyo, sinokuqwalasela ukungenelela kweoli yemifuno kunye neziseko ezinamandla. Ukongeza, isiseko seoli yesundu sehla emva kokunyuka okuqhubekayo, kwaye ixabiso elihambelana neoyile yeembotyi lalikwinqanaba eliphezulu. Kwinqanaba lamva, izinga lokubuyisela isivuno lalikhawuleza, kwaye iMapan yayikwinkqubo yohlengahlengiso. Ngokubhekiselele kwi-arbitrage, ukungenelela ngexesha elifanelekileyo kwixabiso lokusasazeka kwesundu sebhontshisi okanye isundu semifuno sinokuqwalaselwa.
Umbona kunye nesitatshi

Amaxabiso ekamva anyuke kancinci
Ixabiso lendawo yengqolowa yasekhaya yayizinzile kwaye yawa, phakathi kwayo ixabiso lokuthenga amashishini okucoca i-corn deep in North China aqhubeka nokuwa, ngelixa leminye imimandla yahlala izinzile; Ixabiso lendawo yesitatshi lalizinzile ngokubanzi, kwaye abanye abavelisi banciphisa iikowuteshini zabo nge-20-30 yuan / ton. Ngokumalunga neendaba zemarike, i-starch inventory ye-29 ye-deep-processing enterprises + izibuko ukuba i-Tianxia granary igxile ekulandeleni inyuke kwiitoni ze-176900 ukusuka kwiitoni ze-161700 kwiveki ephelileyo; ngoSeptemba 21, i-sub-mboleko kunye nesicwangciso sokubuyisela imbuyekezo yayikukurhweba iitoni ezingama-48970 zombona wogcino lwexeshana ngo-2013, kunye nomthamo wentengiselwano eyiyo yayiyi-48953 yeetoni, kunye nexabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi kwe-1335 yuan; isicwangciso sokuthengisa esinesivumelwano seChina National Grain Storage Company Limited sicebe ukurhweba iitoni ezingama-903801 zombona wogcino lwexeshana ngo-2014, kunye nomthamo wentengiselwano eyiyo yeetoni ezingama-755459 kunye nexabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi kwe-1468 yuan. Ukujonga phambili kwinqanaba lamva, ngokuqwalasela amaxabiso aphezulu emveliso kunye neendawo zokuthengisa ezihambelana nexabiso lexesha elide lombona, alihambisani nemfuno yokwenene kunye nemfuno yokuzaliswa kombona omtsha. Ngoko ke, sigcina isigwebo se-bearish; ngokubhekisele kwistatshi, kuthathelwa ingqalelo impembelelo yokuhlolwa kokhuseleko lwendalo esingqongileyo okanye ukuncipha, kuya kubakho umthamo omtsha wemveliso phambi nasemva kokudweliswa kombona omtsha kwinqanaba lamva. Silindele ukuba unikezelo lwexesha elide kunye nemfuno iya kuthambekela ekuphuculeni. Idityaniswe nolindelo lwexabiso lombona kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wenkxaso-mali onokubakho wokusetyenzwa nzulu, sikwakholelwa ukuba ixabiso lexesha elizayo lesitatshi nalo liqikelelwe kakhulu. Kule meko, sicebisa ukuba abatyali-mali banokuqhubeka ukubamba umbona / istatshi blank sheet okanye isitashi corn price spread arbitrage portfolio ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, kwaye bathathe ekupheleni kuka-Agasti phezulu njengelahleko yokuyeka.
iqanda

Amaxabiso amabala ayaqhubeka ehla
Ngokutsho kwedatha yeZhihua, ixabiso lamaqanda kulo lonke ilizwe laqhubeka liwa, kunye nexabiso eliphakathi kwiindawo eziphambili zokuvelisa eziwela nge-0.04 yuan / Jin kunye nexabiso eliphakathi kwiindawo zokuthengisa eziphambili eziwela nge-0.13 yuan / Jin. Ukujongwa kwezorhwebo kubonisa ukuba abarhwebi kulula ukufumana iimpahla kwaye bacotha ukuhambisa iimpahla. Imeko yorhwebo iyonke iphuculwe kancinane xa kuthelekiswa nosuku lwangaphambili. Uluhlu lwabarhwebi luphantsi, kwaye luyaqhubeka nokunyuka kancinci xa kuthelekiswa nosuku lwangaphambili. Ulindelo lwe-bearish lwabarhwebi lubuthathaka, ngakumbi e-East China nakumazantsi-ntshona e-China Bearish ulindelo lomelele. Ixabiso lamaqanda liqhubekile nokuhla ekuseni, laphinda laphindaphindeka emva kwemini, kwaye lavalwa ngokukhawuleza. Ngokumalunga nexabiso lokuvala, ikhontrakthi ngoJanuwari yenyuka nge-95 yuan, inkontileka ngoMeyi yanda nge-45 yuan, kwaye isivumelwano ngoSeptemba sasisondele. Ukusuka kuhlalutyo lwemarike, sinokubona ukuba ixabiso lendawo yamaqanda liqhubekile nokuhla ngokukhawuleza kwikamva elikufutshane njengoko bekucwangcisiwe, kwaye ukwehla kwexabiso lexesha elizayo kungaphantsi kwelo lexabiso lendawo, kwaye isaphulelo sexabiso sangaphambili sijike saba yipremiyamu, ebonisa ukuba ulindelo lwemarike lutshintshile, oko kukuthi, ukusuka kulindelo olubonisa ukwehla kwexabiso lendawo ephezulu kwixesha elidlulileyo ukuya kulindelo lokunyuka kwangaphambi kweNtwasahlobo. Ukususela kumbono wokusebenza kweemarike, imarike inokulindeleka ukuba ibe malunga ne-4000 njengendawo ephantsi yexabiso likaJanuwari. Kule meko, kucetyiswa ukuba abatyali-mali balinde kwaye babone.
Ihagu ephilayo

Qhubeka uwa
Ngokwedatha ye-zhuyi.com, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo leehagu eziphilayo laliyi-14.38 yuan / kg, 0.06 yuan / kg ngaphantsi kosuku oludlulileyo. Ixabiso leehagu laqhubeka liwa ngaphandle kwengxoxo. Sifumene iindaba ngale ntsasa ukuba ixabiso lokuthengwa kwamashishini okuxhela lehle nge-0.1 yuan / kg. Ixabiso eNyakatho-mpuma yeChina liye laphuka kwi-7, kwaye ixabiso eliphambili li-14 yuan / kg. Ixabiso leehagu eMpuma yeChina lehla, kwaye ixabiso leehagu kwezinye iindawo ngaphandle kweShandong lalingaphezulu kwe-14.5 yuan / kg. I-Henan e-Central China iholele ukuhla, phantsi kwe-0.15 yuan / kg. Amachibi amabini azinzile okwethutyana, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo yi-14.3 yuan / kg. Emazantsi eTshayina, ixabiso lehla nge-0.1 yuan / kg, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo laseGuangdong naseGuangxi laliyi-14.5 yuan / kg, kwaye iHainan yayiyi-14 yuan / kg. Umzantsi-ntshona wehle nge-0.1 yuan / kg, iSichuan kunye neChongqing 15.1 yuan / kg. Ibali legolide, isilivere kunye neshumi linje. Akukho nkxaso ilungileyo kwixabiso lexesha elifutshane. Kuyinyani ukuba kukho ukwanda kweentengiso. Amashishini okuxhela athatha ithuba lemeko kwaye ukwanda akubonakali. Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso leehagu liqhubeke nokuwa.
Ukunika amandla
amalahle ngomphunga

Ukuvala indawo yePort, ukufowunela ngexabiso eliphezulu
Ngaphantsi koxinzelelo lweendaba ezifana ne-atmosphere emnyama jikelele ehlwempuzekileyo kunye nesiqinisekiso sokubonelela ngokusekelwe kumgaqo-nkqubo, ikamva lamalahle aguquguqukayo litshintshile ngokukhawuleza izolo, kunye nekhontrakthi ephambili ye-01 evala i-635.6 kwintengiso yasebusuku, kwaye umehluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-1-5 uyancipha ukuya kwi-56.4. Ngokubhekiselele kwimarike yendawo, echaphazelekayo yiNkongolo yeSizwe ye-19 ezayo yeQela lamaKomanisi laseChina, ezinye iimigodi ezivulekileyo eShaanxi naseShanxi ziye zayeka imveliso kunye nokunciphisa imveliso. Nangona izithintelo zokuqalisa izixhobo eziqhumayo ziye zaphakanyiswa kwi-Inner Mongolia, ukunikezelwa kweendawo zokuvelisa kusenzima, kwaye ixabiso lamalahle kwi-pithead liyaqhubeka nokunyuka. Kumazibuko ixabiso lamalahle lisekwizinga eliphezulu. Ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu kunye nokuqwalaselwa kweengozi zemarike zexesha elide, abarhwebi abanamdla malunga nokulayisha iimpahla, kwaye idigri yokwamkelwa kweenkampani ezisezantsi kwixabiso eliphezulu langoku alikho phezulu. I Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal umphunga amalahle + 0-702 yuan / ton.

Kwiindaba, iKomishoni yoPhuhliso kunye noHlaziyo kutshanje ikhuphe isaziso ekuqinisekiseni ukuthuthwa kwamalahle, umbane, i-oyile kunye negesi, isithi onke amaphondo, imimandla ezimeleyo kunye nezixeko kunye namashishini afanelekileyo kufuneka aqinise ukubekwa kweliso okuguquguqukayo kunye nohlalutyo lwemveliso yamalahle kunye nemfuno yothutho, ukufumanisa ngexesha kunye nokulungelelanisa ukusombulula iingxaki ezibalaseleyo ekuboneleleni, kwaye zizame ukuqinisekisa ukubonelela ngeCoal coal yeSizwe ye-19 ye-Coal Congress ye-19 yaseChina.

I-inventri yamazibuko asemantla aphinde aqhagamshelwe, nge-avareji umthamo wokuthunyelwa mihla le 575000 iitoni, avareji yokudluliselwa kaloliwe mihla le umthamo 660000 iitoni, inventory izibuko + 8-5.62 yezigidi zeetoni, uluhlu Caofeidian izibuko – 30 ukuba 3.17 million toni SD + 4 SD 4 SD +88 SD. iitoni.

Izolo, ukusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kwezityalo zombane kuphinde kwaphindaphindeka. Amaqela amathandathu amakhulu anamandla onxweme adle iitoni ezingama-730000 zamalahle, netoni ye-9.83 yezigidi zeetoni zamalahle esitokhweni kunye neentsuku eziyi-13.5 zokugcina amalahle.

Isalathiso sothutho lwamalahle elunxwemeni lwaseTshayina sinyuke nge-0.01% ukuya kwi-1172 izolo
Ngokubanzi, iintlanganiso ezibalulekileyo ukususela ngoSeptemba ukuya ku-Oktobha kunye nokukhuselwa kokusingqongileyo / ukuhlolwa kokhuseleko lweendawo zemveliso kunokuqhubeka nokukhawulela ukukhutshwa kokunikezelwa. Nangona ukusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kwezityalo zamandla ezisezantsi kwehlile, kusekho kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kwaye inkxaso yendawo yomelele. Kwimarike yexesha elizayo, ikhontrakthi ye-01 ihambelana nexesha eliphakamileyo lokufudumala, kodwa kukho uxinzelelo lokubeka umthamo wokutshintsha ngexesha, kwaye uxinzelelo oluphezulu lubonakala. Sifanele sinikele ingqalelo kumoya jikelele wemarike ejikelezileyo, izinga lokuhla lokusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kunye nokukhululwa komthamo wemveliso ophambili.
PTA

Ukuveliswa kwePolyester kunye nokuthengisa ngokubanzi, ukusebenza okubuthathaka kwe-PTA
Izolo, i-atmosphere ye-commodities yayingekho kakuhle, i-PTA yayibuthathaka, kwaye i-contract ye-01 eyintloko ivaliwe kwi-5268 kwintengiso yasebusuku, kwaye umehluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-1-5 yandiswa ukuya kwi-92. Ukuthengiswa kweemarike kunomthamo omkhulu, ababoneleli abaqhelekileyo bathenga ngokukodwa iimpahla zebala, ezinye iifektri ze-polyester zifumene imiyalelo, isiseko semarike siyaqhubeka sinciphisa. Ngemini, eyona ndawo iphambili kunye ne-01 Contract yathethathethana ngesiseko sentengiselwano ngesaphulelo sama-20-35, irisithi yendawo yokugcina impahla kunye ne-01 yesivumelwano semvumelwano ngesaphulelo sama-30; emini, i-5185-5275 yathathwa, i-5263-5281 yaziswa kwi-transaction, kunye ne-5239 irisiti yokugcina impahla yathengiswa.

Izolo, i-quotation ye-PX yawa emva kokutshatyalaliswa, kwaye i-CFR yanikezelwa kwi-847 USD / T (- 3) ubusuku bonke e-Asia, kwaye umrhumo wokucubungula wawujikeleze i-850. I-PX ibike i-840 USD / T ngo-Oktobha kunye ne-852 USD / T ngoNovemba. Kwixesha elizayo, i-PX yasekhaya inokuthi igcinwe, kodwa akulindelekanga ukuba iphele.

Ngokubhekiselele kwiplanti ye-PTA, ixesha lokulungiswa kwesethi ye-PTA yeplanti kunye nemveliso yonyaka yeetoni ze-1.5 yezigidi kwiPhondo laseJiangsu landiswe malunga neentsuku ezi-5; inqanawa yokuqala ye-PX yeshishini le-PTA e-Huabin No.1 umgca wokuvelisa ufikile eHong Kong kutshanje, kodwa imicimbi yetanki yokugcina ayizange iphunyezwe ngokupheleleyo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba iqale ngoNovemba; Ishishini le-PTA kwiPhondo laseFujian lisayine isivumelwano sohlengahlengiso, kwaye inkqubo yokuqalisa inokukhawuleziswa ngelo xesha, kwaye isicwangciso sokuqala kukuqalisa kwakhona ukuqaliswa kwenxalenye yomthamo wemveliso kwikota yesine.

Kwicala elisezantsi, imveliso yonke kunye nokuthengiswa kwe-Jiangsu kunye ne-Zhejiang i-polyester yarn yayisekho ngokubanzi izolo, kunye nomyinge oqikelelwayo kwi-60-70% malunga ne-3: 30 pm; ukuthengiswa kwepolyester ejikeleza ngokuthe ngqo yayiyi-avareji, kwaye umlambo wawufuna nje ukuvuselelwa, uninzi lwemveliso kunye neentengiso zazijikeleze i-50-80%.

Ngokubanzi, ukugcinwa kwezityalo ze-PTA ukususela ngoSeptemba ukuya ku-Oktobha, kudibaniswa ne-polyester ephantsi yoluhlu kunye nomthwalo ophezulu, ukubonelela kwexesha elifutshane kunye nesakhiwo semfuno sisaxhaswa. Nangona kunjalo, kwinkontileka yexesha elizayo ye-01, inkxaso ye-PX kwicala leendleko yayibuthathaka kwikota yesine. Ngaphantsi koxinzelelo ukusuka ngoNovemba ukuya kuDisemba kwezixhobo zayo ezintsha kunye nezidala, kwakunzima ukugcina iindleko eziphezulu zokucwangcisa, kwaye i-PTA callback pressure yahlala. Kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo kumoya jikelele wemarike yempahla yorhwebo, imveliso yepolyester esezantsi kunye nentengiso kunye notshintsho lwempahla kunye namaxabiso e-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe.
Tianjiao

IRabha yaseShanghai 1801 inokuzinza kwixesha elifutshane
Ngokuphathelele ukuhla kutshanje (1) 1801 ixabiso esasazeke ukuhlehla esebenzayo, idatha ukususela ngo-Agasti yayingaphantsi kunokulindela ixesha elide, eqinisekisa imfuno ebuthathaka izikhundla ezimfutshane (2) ipleyiti icala lonikezelo buthathaka. (3) Kwishishini le-rubber, uninzi lwezithuba ezimfutshane kwi-disk configuration, iiseti ezingezona eziqhelekileyo, iindlela ezintathu ukuya okufanayo, okubangela ukuba iintsuku ze-11 zokurhweba zibuyele kumanqaku angama-800. 2. Ngexesha elifutshane, ndicinga ukuba i-14500-15000 iya kuhlala kwaye ibuyele kwakhona ukuze ibone yonke imveliso yoshishino kunye nomnyama.

PE?

Ngaphambi komnyhadala, imfuno yokulungiswa kwempahla kusafuneka ikhululwe, kwaye ukuxhonywa kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kujonge phezulu kuyanda kwaye umoya omkhulu kunye nemveliso ujika ube buthathaka, kwaye kusekho uxinzelelo kwixesha elifutshane.

Ngomhla wama-21 kuSeptemba, ixabiso le-LLD ex yefektri yaseSinopec eMntla China, eMpuma yeChina, kumbindi weChina, iPetroChina, i-East China, i-South China, i-Southwest China kunye noMntla-ntshona we-China yancitshiswa nge-50-200 yuan / ton, kwaye ixabiso lemarike eliphantsi kuMntla we-China labuyela kwi-9350 yuan / ton (ishishini lemichiza yamalahle). Okwangoku, i-l1801 ilitha yamanzi kuMntla we-China yathengiswa kwi-170 yuan / T. ixabiso le-factory ex ye-petrochemical plant lancitshiswa kwindawo enkulu. Kwakukho abarhwebi abaninzi ukuba bathumele iimpahla ngexabiso lemarike eguquliweyo, kunye nenjongo yokufumana ezantsi yayiyinto eqhelekileyo, Nangona kunjalo, imfuno yempahla ephantsi inyukile, kwaye uxinzelelo kwicala lendawo lusahleli; ukongeza, ngoSeptemba 20, i-CFR Far East ixabiso eliphantsi eliphantsi elilingana ne-RMB 9847 / T, imarike yangaphandle ijinga phantsi ukuya kwi-327 yuan / T, kunye nexabiso lendawo lisekho phezulu ukuya kwi-497 yuan / T. inkxaso enokubakho yangaphandle iya kuqhubeka nokuchaphazela umthamo wokungenisa ngo-Oktobha; ngokwemiqathango yomahluko wexabiso leemveliso ezinxulumeneyo, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-hd-lld kunye ne-ld-lld yi-750 yuan / T kunye ne-650 yuan / T ngokulandelelana, kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nepleyiti Uxinzelelo lwe-Face luyaqhubeka lula, amathuba arbitrage angekho semgangathweni asengaphantsi. Ngokubanzi, ngokwembono yokusasazeka kwexabiso, inkxaso enokubakho yeemarike zangaphandle iye yaqiniswa, uxinzelelo kwiimveliso ezihambelanayo luye lwaqhubeka lulula, kwaye uxinzelelo lwecala luye lwancipha ngokuthe ngcembe ngokuwa kwamaxabiso. Nangona ukwehla okubukhali kwamaxabiso exesha elizayo kuqhubeleka ukubamba imfuno yexesha elifutshane ngenxa yokuncipha kwesikali se-US Federal Reserve kunye nokuncipha kwemeko yorhwebo ngokubanzi, imfuno yempahla elungele iiholide kusenokwenzeka ukuba ikhululwe.

Ukususela kumbono wokubonelela kunye nemfuno, i-inventory yePetroChina yaqhubeka iwa malunga neetoni ze-700000 izolo, kwaye i-petrochemicals yaqhubeka ithengisa inzuzo kwi-inventory ngaphambi komthendeleko. Ukongeza, ukukhutshwa okubekwe kwindawo enye kwendawo yokuqinisa uthango kwangethuba, kukhatshwa buthathaka obutsha nje bomoya omkhulu kunye nempahla yorhwebo, kwandisa uxinzelelo lwexeshana. Nangona kunjalo, ezi ziphumo zibi ziya kugaywa ngokuthe ngcembe ekwehleni kwexabiso kwangoko. Ukongezelela, kukho imfuno yokulungiswa kwempahla phambi komthendeleko kwi-downstream kwikamva elikufutshane Emva kokuzinzisa, ukufunwa kwemfuno kuya kubonakala. Ukongezelela, ukuguqulwa kwangaphakathi kunye nangaphandle kuya kwandiswa, uxinzelelo kwiimveliso ezingezizo eziqhelekileyo ziya kukhululeka, kwaye uxinzelelo lwamabala luya kugaywa ngokuthe ngcembe yimarike, kwaye kuya kusekho amathuba okuba imfuno iya kuphinda ithathe kwakhona kwixesha elizayo (i-stock up phambi komthendeleko). Ke ngoko, kucetyiswa ukuba silinde ithuba lokuvavanywa kwetyala elikhanyayo ngaphambi komthendeleko kwaye sibambe izikhundla ezimfutshane ngononophelo kwinqanaba lokuqala. Kuqikelelwa ukuba uluhlu oluphambili lwexabiso le-l1801 yi-9450-9650 yuan / ton.

PP?

Umoya omkhulu kunye nempahla yorhwebo ibuthathaka, ukuqalisa kwakhona uxinzelelo lwesixhobo kunye nenkxaso yokwahluka kwexabiso, imfuno yesitokhwe, ukuthambekela okulumkileyo kwePP

NgoSeptemba 21, amaxabiso emveliso ex yasekhaya Sinopec North China, South China kunye nemimandla PetroChina South China zancitshiswa 200 yuan / ton, ixabiso lemarike elisezantsi eMpuma China waqhubeka nokuhla ukuya 8500 yuan / ton, ukunyuka kwexabiso pp1801 kwi-East China indawo emxinwa ukuya 110 yuan yorhwebo yanda phantsi kwexabiso yuan / T, uxinzelelo lwexesha elizayo. Iintengiso ezisezantsi zifuneka nje ukuthenga, umthombo wexabiso eliphantsi wetyiswa, kwaye uxinzelelo lwendawo lwakhululeka Ixabiso eliphantsi laqhubeka libuyela kwi-8100 yuan / ton, ixabiso lenkxaso yomgubo lalijikeleze i-8800 yuan / ton, kwaye umgubo wawungenanzuzo, ngoko enye inkxaso iya kubonakala ngokuthe ngcembe. Ukongeza, nge-20 kaSeptemba, i-CFR Far East ephantsi-isiphelo sangaphandle ixabiso le-RMB lehla kancinci ukuya kwi-9233 yuan / ton, i-pp1801 yaguqulelwa kwi-623 yuan / ton, kwaye isitokhwe sangoku saguqulelwa kwi-733 yuan / ton. Ifestile yokuthumela ngaphandle ivuliwe, kwaye inkxaso yangaphandle iyaqhubeka isomeleza. Ukususela kumbono wokusasazeka kwexabiso, isiseko sihlala siphantsi, ukunikezelwa kwempahla kuqinisiwe, kwaye indawo ibuyele emva, ecinezela imarike. Kwixesha elizayo elingekude, abarhwebi baye bandisa imizamo yabo yokuthumela, kwaye uxinzelelo lwexesha elifutshane luye lwanda. Nangona kunjalo, ngokulungiswa kwexabiso, uxinzelelo lwe-aftermarket lunokuthi luncitshiswe ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye ukuzimisela okusezantsi kokufumana iimpahla kuye kwaphindaphinda. Ukongezelela, zombini iphaneli kunye nebala liye laqhubeka lixhoma phantsi kwimarike yangaphandle ngomda omkhulu, kwaye iphaneli nayo ikufuphi nePowder endaweni yokuxhasa, isenzo esipheleleyo sinokuthi sibe buthathaka, kunye nenkxaso yokwahluka kwexabiso nayo yomelezwa.

Ngokwembono yobonelelo kunye nemfuno, izinga lokugcinwa kweplanti yePP lizinziswe okwethutyana ukuya kwi-14.55% kwaye umlinganiselo wokuzoba uzinzisiwe okwethutyana ukuya kuma-28.23% izolo. Nangona kunjalo, i-Shenhua Baotou, iShijiazhuang Refinery kunye ne-Haiwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. banezicwangciso zokuqalisa kwakhona kwixesha elizayo elingekude. Ukongeza, umthamo omtsha wemveliso uya kukhutshwa ngokuthe ngcembe (i-Ningmei isigaba III, iYuntianhua (600096, Ukongeza, okwangoku, isiseko sisephantsi, kwaye unikezelo lwempahla eqingqwe kwisivumelwano se-01 luye lwabuyela ngokuthe ngcembe kwindawo. Nangona kunjalo, le nxalenye yoxinzelelo iye yagaywa ngokuwa kwexabiso. Kutshanje, imfuno yokunitha ngeplastiki iye yanyuka kwinqanaba eliphantsi, kwinqanaba eliphantsi liye lanyuka. kukho imfuno yokulungiswa kwempahla phambi koMthendeleko we-11 Okwangoku, i-PP iya kuba yixinzelelo kwicala lendawo Qhubeka ukugaya umdlalo phakathi kwexesha lokunyuka kwemfuno kunye nokugaya, ngoko ke i-disk yexesha elifutshane okanye ngokucokisekileyo ixesha elifutshane, ligxininise kwinkxaso yokubuyisela imfuno, i-upside down yangaphakathi kunye ne-powder substitution.
imethanoli

I-MEG iwile, inzuzo ye-olefin iphantsi kunye nendawo yesaphulelo, indawo yemveliso iqinile, i-methanol imfutshane ilumkile

Indawo: ngoSeptemba 21, ixabiso lebala le-methanol lavuka kwaye lawa kunye nomnye, apho ixabiso eliphantsi le-Taicang laliyi-2730 yuan / ton, ixabiso lendawo ye-Shandong, i-Henan, i-Hebei, i-Inner Mongolia kunye ne-mazantsi-ntshona ye-China yayingu-2670 (- 200), i-2700 (- 2700), - 2700 500 imithwalo) kunye 2750 (- 180 imithwalo) yuan / ton, kunye nexabiso eliphantsi-isiphelo sempahla ukuhanjiswa kwindawo imveliso yaba 2870-3020 yuan / ton, kwaye imveliso kunye nokuthengisa arbitrage window yavalwa ngokupheleleyo 01 izibini Taicang waqhubeka ukuxhoma phezulu ukuya 3n2. Ukuqwalasela ukuvalwa okuqhubekayo kwefestile ye-arbitrage yemveliso kunye nokuthengisa, oku ngokungathandabuzekiyo kunenkxaso engathanga ngqo ye-port spot kunye nediski;

Ngaphakathi nangaphandle umahluko ixabiso: ngoSeptemba 20, CFR China indawo RMB ixabiso kwakhona 2895 yuan / ton (kubandakanywa 50 port amaxabiso ezahlukeneyo), ma801 inverted ixabiso langaphandle ukuya 197 yuan / T, East China indawo inverted ixabiso langaphandle ukuya 165 yuan / T, kunye nenkxaso disk yangaphandle ukomelezwa indawo yasekhaya kunye nenkxaso kwimarike yangaphandle.

Iindleko: ixabiso lamalahle e-Ordos (i-600295, iyunithi yokuxilongwa) kunye ne-5500 yamalahle e-dakakou e-Jining yePhondo laseShandong yayiyi-391 kunye ne-640 yuan / ton izolo, kunye neendleko ezihambelana nomgangatho wephaneli yayiyi-2221 kunye ne-2344 yuan / ton. Ukongeza, iindleko ze-methanol zentloko yegesi ye-Sichuan Chongqing yayiyi-1830 yuan / ton eMpuma yeChina, kwaye igesi ye-oven ye-coke eMntla China yayiyi-2240 yuan / ton eMpuma yeChina;

Imfuno ekhulayo: ngokwemirhumo yokucubungula idisk, iPP + MEG yawa kwakhona kwi-2437 yuan / ton, isekwizinga eliphezulu. Nangona kunjalo, i-disk kunye neendleko zokucubungula indawo ye-pp-3 * ma yawa kwakhona kwi-570 kunye ne-310 yuan / T. izolo, i-disk ye-Meg yawa ngokukhawuleza, yandisa uxinzelelo olulethwe yiPP ngokufihla;

Ngokubanzi, amaxabiso exesha elizayo aqhubeka ehla ngokukhawuleza izolo, ngokukodwa ngenxa yokunciphisa i-MEG kunye ne-Federal Reserve, okubangelwa ukuhla okubukhali kwi-atmosphere yempahla yonke. Ukongeza, i-PP isajongene noxinzelelo lwesakhono esitsha sokuvelisa, ukuqalisa kwakhona isixhobo kunye nokuphuma kwendawo yokuqina kwedisk ngexesha elifutshane. Nangona kunjalo, kukho imiqondiso yokunciphisa ngokuthe ngcembe uxinzelelo olusisiseko, kunye nexabiso lendawo lisaqinile, kunye nokwandiswa kwedisk egqunyiweyo, kunye nokupaka okucwangcisiweyo kwezixhobo zaseBrunei Kanye nenkxaso efanelekileyo emva kokuqinisekiswa kwamaxwebhu olawulo lwaselwandle, uluhlu lwempahla yamazibuko ase-East China nawo awela kwinqanaba eliphezulu kule veki. Kulumkile ukuba mfutshane kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye akukhuthazwa ukugxotha okufutshane. Kuqikelelwa ukuba uluhlu lwexabiso lemihla ngemihla le-ma801 yi-2680-2750 yuan / ton.
i-oyile endala

Ujoliso kwimarike OPEC jmmc intlanganiso yenyanga

Iindaba zemarike kunye nedatha ebalulekileyo

Ikamva leoli ekrwada ye-WTI ngoNovemba ivale i-0.14 yeedola, okanye i-0.28%, ukuya kwi-50.55 yeedola / umphanda. Ikamva leoli ekrwada ka-Brent kaNovemba liphakame i-0.14 yeedola, okanye i-0.25%, ukuya kwi-56.43 yeedola / umphanda. I-NYMEX ye-Okthobha ye-petroli yexesha elizayo ivalwe nge-$ 1.6438 / galon. I-NYMEX ye-Okthobha yokufudumeza ikusasa leoli ivaliwe kwi-$ 1.8153 / gallon.

2. Kuxelwe ukuba intlanganiso yolawulo lokunciphisa imveliso kulindeleke ukuba ibanjelwe eVienna ngo-4:00 emva kwemini ngexesha laseBeijing ngoLwesihlanu, isingathwe yiKuwait kwaye izinyaswe ngamagosa avela eVenezuela, eAlgeria, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe. Intlanganiso iya kuxoxa ngemiba efana nokwandiswa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso kunye nokubeka iliso kukuthunyelwa kwempahla kumazwe angaphandle ukuhlola izinga lokuphunyezwa kokunciphisa, iReuters ibike. Nangona kunjalo, ummeli we-OPEC uthe okwangoku, onke amazwe awazange afikelele kwimvumelwano malunga nokwandiswa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso, kwaye yonke into ihlala ixoxwa.

Umphathiswa wamandla waseRashiya: I-OPEC kunye namazwe angewona i-OPEC aya kuxoxa ngombandela wokulawulwa kwe-oyile ekrwada kwintlanganiso yaseVienna. Ngokweendaba zentengiso, iKomiti yobuGcisa ye-OPEC yacebisa ukuba abaphathiswa bamazwe avelisa i-oyile kufuneka bajonge ukuthunyelwa kwe-oli ekrwada kumazwe angaphandle njengesongezelelo kwisivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso.

4. I-Goldman Sachs: kulindeleke ukuba iintetho ze-OPEC aziyi kwandisa isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso yeoli, kodwa kusekude kakhulu ukwenza isigqibo. Kukholelwa ukuba ikomiti yokulawula yokunciphisa imveliso yeoli ye-OPEC ayiyi kucebisa ukwandisa isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso kule veki. Izinto ezisisiseko ezomeleleyo zangoku zixhasa ukuphinda kukaGoldman ulindelo lwakhe lokuba ukuhanjiswa kweoyile kuya kunyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-58 yeedola / umgqomo ekupheleni konyaka.

I-Tankertracker: Ukuthunyelwa kwe-oyile ekrwada ye-OPEC kulindeleke ukuba yehle nge-140000 B / D ukuya kwi-23.82 yezigidi ze-B / D ukusuka nge-7 ka-Okthobha.

L. ingqiqo yotyalo-mali

Kutshanje, imakethi igxile kwintlanganiso yenyanga ye-jmmc ye-OPEC, kwaye imiba emininzi eqwalaselwa ngakumbi yimarike yile: 1. Ingaba isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso siya kwandiswa; 2. Ukomeleza njani ukuphunyezwa kunye nokubekwa kweliso kwisivumelwano sokuncitshiswa kwemveliso, nokuba ingaba izalathisi zokuthumela ngaphandle ziya kubekwa iliso na; 3. Ingaba iNigeria kunye neLibya ziya kujoyina iqela lokunciphisa imveliso. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ngenxa ye-stocking ebalulekileyo ye-oyile kulo nyaka, i-OPEC ayinakucinga ukwandisa isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso kwixesha langoku, kodwa akunqatshelwe ukuba intlanganiso yesikhashana iya kubanjwa kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo ukwandisa ukunciphisa imveliso. Siqikelela ukuba intlanganiso ye-jmmc namhlanje iya kugxila kwindlela yokomeleza ukongamela nokuphunyezwa kokunciphisa imveliso. Nangona kunjalo, kusekho iingxaki ezininzi zobugcisa ekufuneka zisonjululwe kulawulo lomthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle. Okwangoku, ukuveliswa kweNigeria kunye neLibya akuzange kubuyiselwe ngokupheleleyo kwinqanaba eliqhelekileyo, ngoko ke amathuba okunciphisa imveliso angabi mkhulu.
itela

Imakethi yorhwebo iphantsi, ukuhanjiswa kwe-asphalt kuphuculwe
Isishwankathelo sokuJonga:
Imakethi yorhwebo lwekamva jikelele ibonise indlela ehlayo izolo, ngamalahle okucokisa kunye neferrosilicon ehle ngaphezulu kwe-5%, iimveliso zeekhemikhali ziwa ngokubanzi, imethanol ngaphezulu kwe-4%, irabha kunye nePVC ngaphezulu kwe-3%. Ikamva le-asphalt elithile ligcine ukuhla ukuhla ngexesha lokurhweba emini. Ixabiso lokuvala isivumelwano esiphambili se-1712 izolo emva kwemini yayiyi-2438 yuan / ton, eyayiyi-34 yuan / itoni engaphantsi kwexabiso lokuhlalisa izolo, kunye nokuncipha kwe-1.38% yezandla ze-5500. Oku kuhla kuchatshazelwa ngakumbi yimo yemalike yempahla yorhwebo, kwaye akusekho ukuwohloka kwesiseko se asphalt.

Imarike yendawo yahlala izinzile, kunye namaxabiso entengiselwano aqhelekileyo angama-2400-2500 yuan / iitoni kwimarike yaseMpuma China, 2350-2450 yuan / toni kwimarike yaseShandong kunye ne-2450-2550 yuan / toni kwimarike yaseMzantsi China. Okwangoku, emva kokuphela kohlolo lokusingqongileyo, ulwakhiwo lwendlela esezantsi lubuyiselwa ngokuthe ngcembe. Emva kokuphela kohlolo lokusingqongileyo e-Shandong, ukuthunyelwa kwezinto zokucoca kuye kwaphucuka, kwaye ummandla wase-East China nawo uyachacha ngokuthe ngcembe. Nangona kunjalo, okwangoku, kukho imvula eninzi kule ndawo, kwaye umthamo awukakhululwa. ENyakatho yeChina, abahwebi basebenza kakhulu ekulungiseleleni iimpahla ngaphambi kweholide yoSuku lweSizwe, kwaye imeko yokuthunyelwa kwayo yonke ilungile Imeko yegesi ilungile, kwaye ukuthunyelwa ngokubanzi kuhamba kakuhle. Okwangoku, ixesha lokwakha emantla eTshayina liphantse libe yinyanga enye ukusuka phakathi ukuya kwiintsuku ezilishumi zokugqibela zikaOktobha. Impembelelo yokusingqongileyo ekwakhiweni kweendlela iyacotha, kwaye kufuneka kubekho umsebenzi okhawulezileyo kwixesha elizayo ukuxhasa imfuno ye-asphalt. Ngokusondela kweholide yoSuku lweSizwe, imeko yesitokhwe esisembindini eShandong, eHebei, emantla mpuma nakweminye imimandla ithe chu kancinci yadambisa uxinzelelo lwempahla yokucokisa. Kwicala leendleko, i-asphalt yendawo iye yahlala kwindawo ehambelanayo. Emva kokuba ixabiso le-oyile ekrwada linyusiwe, inzuzo yethiyori kwindawo yokucokisa yehle nge-110 yuan ukuya kwi-154 yuan/toni kwiveki ephelileyo, kwaye isithuba sokuhla nangakumbi kwixabiso lendawo sincinci. Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba ngenxa yempembelelo yezinto ezikhuselweyo zokusingqongileyo kwicala lemfuno kunye nolawulo longcoliseko lomoya ebusika, imfuno yexesha elizayo ingaba ngaphantsi kunokuba ilindeleke. Ukongeza, ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, amandla emveliso yokucoca i-asphalt kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo iya kwandiswa kakhulu, kwaye umthamo wemveliso wokucokisa i-asphalt uya kwandiswa kakhulu.

Lilonke, xa kuthelekiswa nemfuno ye-asphalt kwixesha eliphakamileyo lesiqhelo, kukho indawo encinci yokwehla okubukhali ngakumbi. Kulindeleke ukuba ngokubuyiselwa kolwakhiwo olusezantsi kwixa elizayo, kuya kubakho enye indawo yokukhula.

Iingcebiso zeqhinga:
Ixabiso le-yuan engama-2500, i-bargain ixesha elide, nikela ingqalelo kutshintsho lokutshintsha kwexabiso lenyanga.

Umngcipheko weqhinga:
Ukuveliswa kwe-asphalt kugqithise, kwaye ukunikezelwa kuphelile, kwaye ixabiso leoli kumazwe ngamazwe liguquguquka kakhulu.

Iinketho zobungakanani
Ukuthengiswa ngokubanzi kokutya kweembotyi zesoya kunokuyeka ukuphumelela, kwaye ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kweswekile kuya kunyuka
Iinketho zokutya zeembotyi zesoya

Njengesivumelwano esiphambili ngoJanuwari, ixabiso lexesha elizayo leembotyi zesoya laqhubeka liguquguquka ngoSeptemba 21, kwaye ixabiso lemihla ngemihla livaliwe kwi-2741 yuan / ton. Umthamo wokurhweba kunye nendawo yosuku yayiyi-910000 kunye ne-1880000, ngokulandelanayo.

Umthamo wokurhweba wezinketho zokutya zesoya uhleli uzinzile namhlanje, kunye nenani elipheleleyo le-11300 yezandla (i-unilateral, efanayo ngezantsi), kunye nesikhundla se-127700. NgoJanuwari, umthamo wekhontrakthi wawubalelwa kwi-73% yazo zonke iinguqu zekhontrakthi kunye nesikhundla esibalelwa kwi-70% yazo zonke izikhundla zekhontrakthi. Umda wesimo esimacala omabini wokhetho lokutya kweembotyi zesoya uye wanyenyiswa ukusuka kuma-300 ukuya kowama-2000, kwaye umsebenzi wentengiselwano yentengiso unyuke kakhulu. Umlinganiselo wesidlo seembotyi zesoya ubeke umthamo wokukhetha ukubiza umthamo wokhetho uhanjiswe kwi-0.52, kwaye umlinganiselo we-put option position yokufowunela i-option position ugcinwe kwi-0.63, kwaye uvakalelo lwahlala lungathathi hlangothi kwaye lunethemba. Kulindeleke ukuba imakethi igcine uluhlu oluncinci lwe-oscillation ngaphambi kosuku lwesizwe.

Emva kokukhululwa kwe-USDA yenyanga yonikezelo kunye nengxelo yemfuno, ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kwaqhubeka ukwehla. NgoJanuwari, ixabiso lokusebenzisa ukutya kweembotyi zesoya kwikhontrakthi yexabiso elisicaba liye laya kwi-2750, ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kuqhubekile ukuhla ukuya kwi-16.94%, kwaye umahluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kunye neentsuku ezingama-60 zokuguquguquka kwembali kwandiswe ukuya kwi-1.83%. Emva kokukhululwa kwe-USDA yenyanga yonikezelo kunye nemfuno yengxelo ngoSeptemba, imeko ebonisa ukuba ukuguquguquka okuguquguqukayo kuguquguqukayo kwimbali kunokufika esiphelweni, kwaye ixabiso ledisk lilindeleke ukuba ligcine ukuguquguquka okuncinci, kwaye ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kukwinqanaba elisezantsi ngokufanelekileyo. Kucetyiswa ukuba indawo yokhetho olubanzi (m1801-c-2800 kunye ne-m1801-p-2600) inokuthengiswa inyathelo ngesinyathelo ukuthintela umngcipheko wokunyuka kokuguquguquka okuziswe ngeveki. Inzuzo kunye nelahleko yokuthengisa iinketho ezibanzi ze-span yi-2 Yuan / isabelo.
Iinketho zeswekile

Ixabiso lekhontrakthi ephambili kaJanuwari yekamva leswekile emhlophe yawa ngoSeptemba 21, kwaye ixabiso lemihla ngemihla livaliwe kwi-6135 yuan / ton. Umthamo wokurhweba wenkontileka kaJanuwari wawuyi-470000, kwaye isikhundla sasiyi-690000. Umthamo wokurhweba kunye nesikhundla sahlala sizinzile.

Namhlanje, inani elipheleleyo lokurhweba leenketho zeswekile laliyi-6700 (i-unilateral, efanayo ngezantsi), kwaye indawo epheleleyo yayiyi-64700. Umda wesigxina somda we-unilateral wokhetho lweswekile uphinde waphumla ukusuka kwi-200 ukuya kwi-2000, kwaye umthamo wokurhweba kunye nesikhundla sokhetho sanda kakhulu. Okwangoku, umthamo wekhontrakthi ngoJanuwari ubalelwa kwi-74% kwaye isikhundla sibalelwa kwi-57%. Umthamo wanamhlanje wokurhweba kwiinketho zeswekile PC_ Umlinganiselo ufudukele ku-0.66, isikhundla PC_ Umlinganiselo uhleli ku-0.90, kwaye umsebenzi wokhetho lweswekile emhlophe wehlile kwakhona_ Ukukwazi kwe-ratio ukuphendula kwiimvakalelo kulinganiselwe.

Okwangoku, iintsuku ezingama-60 zokuguquguquka kwembali yeswekile yi-11.87%, kwaye ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kweenketho zexabiso elisicaba ngoJanuwari kuguqukele kwi-12.41%. Okwangoku, umahluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okuchaziweyo kunye nokuguquguquka kwembali yeenketho zexabiso eliphantsi ngoJanuwari kuncitshiswe kwi-0.54%. Ukuguquguquka kuyenyuka, kwaye umngcipheko wepotfoliyo yokubeka iyanda. Kuyacetyiswa ukuba ubambe indawo yokhetho lwesithuba esibanzi (thengisa sr801p6000 kunye sr801c6400) ngononophelo, kwaye uvune ixabiso lexesha lokukhetha. Namhlanje, inzuzo kunye nelahleko yokuthengisa ipotifoliyo ebanzi (sr801p6000 kunye ne-sr801c6400) yi-4.5 yuan / isabelo.
TB

"Ukuncitshiswa kwesikali" uthuli luzinzile, isivuno semali semali sinyuke saya eTshayina

Uphononongo lwemarike:
Ikamva le-Treasury bond liye laguquguquka lisezantsi imini yonke, uninzi lwavalwa, kwaye uluvo lwentengiso lwalungekho phezulu. Ikhontrakthi ephambili yeminyaka emihlanu ye-tf1712 ivale i-0.07% ephantsi kwi-97.450 yuan, kunye ne-9179 eninzi yevolumu yokurhweba, i-606 ngaphantsi kosuku lwangaphambili lokurhweba, kunye nezikhundla ze-64582, i-164 ngaphantsi kosuku lwangaphambili lokurhweba. Inani lilonke lentengiselwano iikontraka ezintathu 9283, kunye nokuncipha 553, kunye nesikhundla lilonke 65486 izivumelwano zehle ngo-135. Isivumelwano seminyaka eli-10 engundoqo t1712 ivalwe phantsi 0.15% ukuya 94.97 yuan, kunye nengeniso ye-35365 kunye nokuncipha kwe-7 yezandla, ukunyuka kwe-7 ye-7 ye-7 ye-7 kunye nokuncipha kwe-7 ye-7 ye-1712 ye-10, i-contract ye-1712 ivalwe phantsi kwe-0.15% ukuya kwi-94.97 ye-yuan. 75017. Inani lilonke lentengiselwano yezi zivumelwano zintathu yayingama-35586, ukwanda kwe-7704, kunye nesikhundla esipheleleyo se-76789 yezivumelwano zehle ngama-24.

Uhlalutyo lwemarike:
Ingxelo ye-FOMC ye-Federal Reserve yase-US ngoSeptemba ibonise ukuba ukuncitshiswa kwe-passive scale kwaqalwa ngo-Oktobha kulo nyaka, ngelixa izinga lenzala ye-benchmark lahlala lingatshintshi ukusuka kwi-1% ukuya kwi-1.25%. Kulindeleke ukuba izinga lenzala liphinde liphakanyiswe kwakhona kwi-2017, ekhokelela ekubeni imarike yoyiko lokuqiniswa kwemali kwixesha elifutshane. Isivuno se-US Treasury bonds siye sakhula ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imveliso ye-interbank cash bond market yachatshazelwa yi-conductivity, kwaye uluhlu lokunyuka lwandiswa. Kulindeleke ukuba iBhanki ePhakathi yaseChina iya kunciphisa izinga lokungathathi hlangothi kwebhanki ephakathi kwikota yesine, kodwa ayiyi kuchaphazeleka kukunyuka okuphakathi kwebhanki yaseChina.

Ithoni esisiseko yokugcina uzinzo ihlala ifana nangaphambili, kwaye i-capital iyancipha imihla ngemihla: ibhanki ephakathi iqhube imisebenzi yokubuyisela kwakhona i-40 yezigidigidi iintsuku ezi-7 kunye ne-20 yezigidigidi zeentsuku ze-28 ngoLwesine, kunye ne-bid yokuwina inzala yayiyi-2.45% kunye ne-2.75% ngokulandelanayo, eyayifana nexesha lokugqibela. Kwangolo suku lunye, bekukho ama-60 eebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni zokuphinda kuthengwe ngokutsha, nto leyo eyayiphelisa ngokupheleleyo ukuvuthwa kwemali. Ibhanki evulelekileyo yokubiyela ibhanki ivuthwa iintsuku ezimbini ezilandelelanayo, igcina ithoni yozinzo njengangaphambili. Uninzi lwenzala yesibambiso serepo yeebhanki zehla, kwaye imali yehla kancinci. Nangona kunjalo, emva kokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwemali yokuhlawula amatyala, kwakungekabikho umdla wokurhweba kwimarike, ebonisa ukuba iimali zemarike zazisalumkile emva kokuqala kokunciphisa isikali se-Fed nangaphambi kokuphela kwekota ye-MPa yovavanyo.

Imfuno enamandla yeebhondi ze-CDB, imfuno ebuthakathaka yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kweebhondi zebhanki: i-bid yokuphumelela isivuno se-3-year fixed interest bonds eyongezelelweyo yeBhanki yoPhuhliso lwase-China yi-4.1970%, i-bid multiple yi-3.75, i-bid yokuphumelela isivuno se-7-year fixed bonds eyongezelelweyo yi-4.3486%, kunye ne-4.03 i-multiple. I-bid yokuphumelela isivuno se-3-year fixed interest bond eyongezelelweyo yi-4.2801%, i-bid multiple yi-2.26, i-5-year fixed interest bond eyongezelelweyo yi-4.3322%, i-bid multiple yi-2.21, i-10-year fixed bond eyongezelelweyo yi-4.3664%, i-bid multiple yi-2.39. Iziphumo zebhidi kwiimarike eziphambili zahlulahlulwe, kwaye imveliso yokuphumelela ibhidi yezigaba ezibini zeBhanki yoPhuhliso yaseChina iphantsi kunoqikelelo lweBhanki yeSizwe yoPhuhliso lwaseTshayina, kwaye imfuno yomelele. Nangona kunjalo, i-bid yokuphumelela isivuno sesigaba sesithathu sebhondi yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle iphezulu kakhulu kunoqikelelo lweebhondi zaseTshayina, kwaye imfuno ibuthathaka.

Iingcebiso zokusebenza:
I-US Federal Reserve's scale shrinking boots iphunyezwe ngokusemthethweni, kwaye i-Federal Reserve ibonise ukuma "kufutshane nokhozi kwaye kude neHobe". Nangona isivuno seebhondi zasekhaya ze-treasury ziphezulu ngenxa yempembelelo ye-conductive yetyala lase-US, eyona nto iphikiswayo kwimalike yebhondi iseyimali yokuhlawula amatyala. Ibhanki enguvimba imisele uqingqo-mali oluzinzileyo nolungathathi hlangothi kwangentseni. Ngaphezu koko, ichatshazelwe luqikelelo lwezoqoqosho lwaseTshayina kwikota yesine, ibhanki ephakathi ayinakulandela ukutya ukunyusa amaxabiso enzala. Uninzi lwenzala yesibambiso serepo yeebhanki zehla, kwaye imali yehla kancinci. Nangona kunjalo, emva kokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwemali yokuhlawula amatyala, kwakungekabikho umdla wokurhweba kwimarike, ebonisa ukuba iimali zemarike zazisalumkile emva kokuqala kokunciphisa isikali se-Fed nangaphambi kokuphela kwekota ye-MPa yovavanyo. Gcina isiphelo sekota yetyala letyala phambi kwexesha elimxinwa isigwebo esothusayo singatshintshanga.

Ukuziphendulela: ulwazi olukule ngxelo luhlanganiswe kwaye luhlalutywe yi-Huatai futures, yonke into evela kwidatha epapashwe. Uhlalutyo lwengcaciso okanye izimvo ezichazwe kwingxelo azibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali. Abatyali-mali baya kuthwala isigwebo esenziwe ngezimvo kwingxelo kunye nelahleko enokwenzeka.