Iswekile emhlophe
Iswekile ekrwada iyothusa inkxaso yasekhaya
Iswekile ekrwada ibiguquguquka kancinane izolo, inyuswe kulindelo lokuhla kwemveliso yeswekile yaseBrazil.Ikhontrakthi ephambili iphakame kwi-14.77 cent pound kwaye yawela kwi-14.54 cents ngepounds.Ixabiso lokugqibela lokuvala lekhontrakthi ephambili yenyuka i-0.41% ukuvala kwi-14.76 cents ngepounds.Isivuno seswekile kwezona ndawo zivelisa ummoba kumbindi nasemazantsi eBrazil siya kuhla siye kutsho kwiminyaka emithathu ephantsi kulo nyaka uzayo.Ngenxa yokunqongophala kokutyala ngokutsha, isivuno somoba kwindawo nganye siya kuncitshiswa kwaye imveliso ye-ethanol iya kwandiswa.I-Kingsman iqikelela ukuba imveliso yeswekile phakathi nakumazantsi eBrazil ngo-2018-19 yi-33.99 yezigidi zeetoni.Ngaphezulu kwe-90% yemveliso yaseTshayina yeTangtang kumbindi nasemazantsi eBrazil.Eli nqanaba lemveliso yeswekile lithetha ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka we-2.1 yezigidi zeetoni kwaye kuya kuba kwinqanaba eliphantsi ukusuka kwi-31.22 yezigidi zeetoni kwi-2015-16.Kwelinye icala, iindaba zokulahlwa kukaVimba woMbuso kwifandesi enguvimba zaye zetyiswa ngokuthe ngcembe yimarike.Nangona ixabiso leswekile lehla kwakhona ebudeni bemini, lawufumana umhlaba walo owawulahlekile ekupheleni kwemini.Ngokubhekiselele kumava ezinye iintlobo, sikholelwa ukuba ukuthengiswa koovimba akuyi kuchaphazela indlela yentengiso yexesha eliphakathi.Kubatyalo-mali bexesha eliphakathi kunye nexesha elifutshane, banokulinda ixabiso lokuzinza kwaye bathenge inkontileka ye-1801 kwi-bargain.Ngokuphathelele utyalo-mali olukhethiweyo, umrhwebi webala unokuqhuba i-portfolio yokhetho olugqunyiweyo lokuthengisa inketho yokufowuna yentelekelelo kwisiseko sokubamba indawo kwixesha elifutshane.Kwiminyaka emi-1 ukuya kwemi-2 ezayo, ukusebenza kwepotfoliyo yokhetho e-inshoriweyo ingasetyenziswa njengesiphuculi sengeniso ekhoyo.Okwangoku, kubatyali-mali bexabiso, banokuthenga iinketho zokufowuna ngexabiso lokusebenzisa i-6300 ukuya kwi-6400, Xa ixabiso leswekile linyuka ukwenza ukhetho lwenyani lube lixabiso lokwenyani, unokuvala ukhetho lomnxeba ngexabiso eliphantsi lokuzilolonga kwinqanaba lokuqala kwaye qhubeka uthenge umjikelo omtsha wenketho yokufowuna (ukhetho lokufowuna kunye nexabiso lokusebenzisa i-6500 okanye i-6600), kwaye ngokuthe ngcembe ukhethe ithuba lokuyeka inzuzo xa ixabiso leswekile lifikelela ngaphezu kwe-6600 yuan / ton.
Umsonto wekotoni kunye nomqhaphu

Umqhaphu wase-US waqhubeka nokuwa, uxinzelelo lwasekhaya lwe-cotton callback
Ikamva lomqhaphu womkhenkce liqhubekile nokuwa izolo njengoko iinkxalabo malunga nomonakalo onokwenzeka kumqhaphu obangelwe yiNkanyamba uMaria wehla kwaye imarike yalinda ukuvunwa komqhaphu.I-ICE1 ye-cotton ephambili kaFebruwari yawela i-1.05 cents / pound ukuya kwi-68.2 cent nge-pound.Ngokutsho kwedatha ye-USDA yamva nje, ngeveki kaSeptemba 14, kwi-2017 / 18, umnatha womqhaphu wase-US wafumana iitoni ze-63100, kunye nokwanda kwenyanga kwi-47500 yeetoni, kunye nokunyuka konyaka kwiitoni ze-14600;ukuthunyelwa kweetoni ze-41100, inyanga ngenyanga yokwanda kweetoni ze-15700, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka weetoni ze-3600, i-akhawunti ye-51% yomthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle (USDA ngoSeptemba), ongaphezulu kwe-9% ngaphezu kweminyaka emihlanu. ixabiso eliphakathi.Kwicala lasekhaya, i-zhengmian kunye ne-cotton yarn yayiphantsi koxinzelelo, kwaye i-contract yokugqibela ye-cotton ye-1801 yavalwa Ukunikezelwa kwakuyi-15415 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-215 yuan / ton.Ikhontrakthi yomsonto we-cotton ka-1801 ivaliwe kwi-23210 yuan / ton, phantsi kwe-175 yuan / ton.Ngokumalunga nokujikeleza komqhaphu ogciniweyo, iitoni ezingama-30024 zahanjiswa ngomhla wesine wale veki, kwaye eyona mali yayiyi-29460 yeetoni, kunye nesantya sokuthengiselana se-98.12%.Ixabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi lehle nge-124 yuan / ton ukuya kwi-14800 yuan / ton.Ngomhla wama-22 kuSeptemba, umthamo ocwangcisiweyo wokujikeleza wawuziitoni ezingama-26800, kuquka ne-19400 yeetoni zomqhaphu weXinjiang.Amaxabiso e-spot abambekile kwaye anyuka kancinane, kunye ne-CC index 3128b yorhwebo kwi-15974 yuan / ton, ukunyuka kwe-2 yuan / itoni ukusuka kusuku lwangaphambili lokuthengisa.Isalathiso sexabiso leMisonto eyi-32 eyi-Combed yayiyi-23400 yuan / ton kwaye loo 40 yeMisonto eQonyiweyo yayingama-26900 yuan / ton.Ngamafutshane, umqhaphu waseMerika waqhubeka usiwa, yaye ngokuthe ngcembe iintyatyambo zasekhaya zadweliswa.I-cotton ye-Zheng yachatshazelwa yile nto kwixesha elifutshane kwaye yahlala iguquguqukayo phakathi kunye nexesha elide.Abatyali-mali banokuthenga ngokuthe ngcembe kwiintengiso emva kokuba ithamsanqa elibi lomqhaphu waseMelika lityiswe.Kwangaxeshanye, indawo yamva nje yomqhaphu yomelela ngokuthe ngcembe, sinokulinda umsonto womqhaphu uzinze, kodwa ngokuthe ngcembe sithenge ngentengiselwano.
Ukutya kweembotyi

Ukusebenza ngamandla kweembotyi zesoya zase-US ezithunyelwa ngaphandle
Iimbotyi zesoya ze-CBOT ziphakame kancinci izolo, ukuvala kwi-970.6 cents / PU, kodwa iyonke isekuluhlu lwebhokisi lothuko.Ingxelo yeveki yokuthengisa kumazwe angaphandle ibintle.Kwiveki yamva nje, umthamo wentengiso yokuthumela ngaphandle kweembotyi zase-US ibiziitoni ezingama-2338000, phezulu kakhulu kunoqikelelo lwentengiso lwe-1.2-1.5 yezigidi zeetoni.Ngeli xesha, i-USDA ibhengeze ukuba abathengisi babucala bathengisa iitoni ze-132000 zeembotyi zesoya eChina.Okwangoku, imarike idlala umdlalo phakathi kwesivuno esiphezulu kunye nemfuno enamandla.Ukususela ngeCawe edlulileyo, izinga lokuvuna laliyi-4%, kwaye izinga elihle kwaye elihle laliyi-1% ukuya kwi-59% ngaphantsi kweveki edlulileyo.Isiphumo esibi sesivuno esiphezulu silindeleke, kwaye imfuno eqhubekayo eqinile iya kuxhasa ixabiso.Xa kuthelekiswa nokwangaphambili, sinethemba lokuthengisa.Ukongeza, ngokufika kwemveliso yase-US, ugxininiso lwamva luya kutshintshela ngokuthe ngcembe kutyalo lweembotyi zesoya zaseMzantsi Melika kunye nokukhula, kwaye umxholo woqikelelo uya kwanda.Lwaluncinci utshintsho kwicala lasekhaya.Izitokhwe zeembotyi zesoya kumachweba kunye neefektri zeoyile zawa kwiveki ephelileyo, kodwa zazisekwinqanaba eliphezulu ngexesha elifanayo lembali.Kwiveki ephelileyo, izinga lokuqalisa kwesityalo seoli liye landa kwi-58.72%, kwaye umthamo wemihla ngemihla wokurhweba we-soybean unyuke ukusuka kwiitoni ze-115000 ngeveki ukuya kwi-162000 tons.Uluhlu lwezidlo zesoya zesityalo se-oyile ziye zancipha kwiiveki ezintandathu ezilandelelanayo ngaphambili, kodwa zabuya kancinci kwiveki ephelileyo, zinyuka ukusuka kwiitoni ze-824900 ukuya kwiitoni ze-837700 ukususela ngoSeptemba 17. Isityalo seoli kulindeleke ukuba siqhubeke nokusebenza kwinqanaba eliphezulu kule veki ngenxa kwiingeniso ezinkulu kunye nolungiselelo phambi komhla wesizwe.Kule veki, umthamo wentengiselwano kunye nokuhanjiswa kwendawo unyuke kakhulu.Izolo, umthamo wokuthengiselana wesonka sesoya wawungama-303200 eetoni, ixabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi laliyi-2819 (+ 28), kwaye umthamo wokuhanjiswa wawuyi-79400 yeetoni.Kulindeleke ukuba isidlo sesoya siqhubeke silandela i-soya yase-US kwelinye icala, kwaye isiseko siya kuhlala sizinzile kwinqanaba langoku okwangoku.
Amafutha e-oyile yesoya

Ukulungiswa kweoli engaphantsi kwempahla
Iimbotyi zesoya zase-US ziqhele ukuguquguquka kwaye zenyuka kancinci izolo, ngokuxhomekeke kwimfuno emandla yokuthumela ngaphandle kweembotyi zase-US.Emva kwethuba elifutshane lohlengahlengiso lwemalike, imfuno eyomeleleyo yase-US iya kunciphisa ukonyuka kokuphela koluhlu lwe-balance sheet kunye ne-warehouse kumlinganiselo wokusetyenziswa, kwaye ixabiso linokuhlala libuthathaka kude kube kwinqanaba eliphantsi lesivuno samaxesha onyaka.UMa pan uwile izolo.Imveliso ngoSeptemba, kubandakanywa nexesha elizayo, kulindeleke ukuba ibuyele ngokukhawuleza.Ukusuka kwi-1 ukuya kwi-15 ye-9, ukuthunyelwa kwe-Ma palm kunyuke nge-20% ngenyanga ngenyanga, kunye nomthamo wokuthunyelwa kwe-Indiya kunye nelizwekazi elingaphantsi liye lehla.Lo mjikelo wokunyuka kweMalay ube phezulu kakhulu.Nje ukuba isiphumo sibuyele kwinqanaba lamva, i-Ma pan iya kuba nohlengahlengiso olukhulu.Izinto ezisisiseko zasekhaya azitshintshanga kakhulu.Uluhlu lweoli yesundu yi-360000 yeetoni, kunye ne-oyile ye-soya yi-1.37 yezigidi zeetoni.Ukulungiswa kwesitokhwe kwimithendeleko kungene kwinqanaba elilandelayo, kwaye umthamo wokuthengiselana uye wehla ngokuthe ngcembe.Kwinqanaba lamva, ukufika kweoli yesundu eHong Kong ikhula ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye uxinzelelo luvela ngokuthe ngcembe.Ikamva leemveliso liqhubekile nokuwa izolo, umoya omfutshane uqhubekile, kwaye ioyile ilandele ukuncipha.Ukusebenza, kucetyiswa ukuba ulinde kwaye ubone umoya wemarike.Emva kokuba umngcipheko ukhululwe ngokupheleleyo, sinokuqwalasela ukungenelela kweoli yemifuno kunye neziseko ezinamandla.Ukongeza, isiseko seoli yesundu sehla emva kokunyuka okuqhubekayo, kwaye ixabiso elihambelana neoyile yeembotyi lalikwinqanaba eliphezulu.Kwinqanaba lamva, izinga lokubuyisela isivuno lalikhawuleza, kwaye iMapan yayikwinkqubo yohlengahlengiso.Ngokubhekiselele kwi-arbitrage, ukungenelela ngexesha elifanelekileyo kwixabiso lokusasazeka kwesundu sebhontshisi okanye isundu semifuno sinokuqwalaselwa.
Umbona kunye nesitatshi

Amaxabiso ekamva anyuke kancinci
Ixabiso lendawo yengqolowa yasekhaya yayizinzile kwaye yawa, phakathi kwayo ixabiso lokuthengwa kwe-corn deep processing amashishini e-North China aqhubeka ehla, ngelixa leminye imimandla yahlala izinzile;Ixabiso lendawo yesitatshi lalizinzile ngokubanzi, kwaye abanye abavelisi banciphisa iikowuteshini zabo nge-20-30 yuan / ton.Ngokumalunga neendaba zemarike, i-starch inventory ye-29 ye-deep-processing enterprises + izibuko ukuba i-Tianxia granary igxile ekulandeleni iphakame kwiitoni ze-176900 ukusuka kwiitoni ze-161700 kwiveki ephelileyo;ngoSeptemba 21, i-sub-mboleko kunye nesicwangciso sembuyekezo yayikukurhweba iitoni ezingama-48970 zombona wogcino lwexeshana ngo-2013, kunye nenani lentengiselwano eyiyo yayiyi-48953 yeetoni, ngexabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi kwe-1335 yuan;isicwangciso sokuthengisa esinesivumelwano seChina National Grain Storage Company Limited sicebe ukurhweba iitoni ezingama-903801 zombona wogcino lwexeshana ngo-2014, kunye nomthamo wentengiselwano oyiwo we-755459 yeetoni kunye nexabiso lentengiselwano eliphakathi kwe-1468 yuan. inyuke kancinci ekugqibeleni.Ukukhangela phambili kwinqanaba elilandelayo, ngokuqwalasela amaxabiso aphezulu emveliso kunye neendawo zokuthengisa ezihambelana nexabiso lexesha elide lombona, alihambisani nemfuno yokwenene kunye nemfuno yokuzaliswa kombona omtsha.Ngoko ke, sigcina isigwebo se-bearish;ngokubhekisele kwistatshi, kuthathelwa ingqalelo impembelelo yokuhlolwa kokhuseleko lwendalo esingqongileyo okanye ukuncipha, kuya kubakho umthamo omtsha wemveliso phambi nasemva kokudweliswa kombona omtsha kwinqanaba lamva.Silindele ukuba unikezelo lwexesha elide kunye nemfuno iya kuthambekela ekuphuculeni.Idityaniswe nolindelo lwexabiso lombona kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo wenkxaso-mali onokubakho wokusetyenzwa nzulu, sikwakholelwa ukuba ixabiso lexesha elizayo lesitatshi nalo liqikelelwe kakhulu.Kule meko, sicebisa ukuba abatyali-mali banokuqhubeka ukubamba i-corn / istatshi engenanto okanye i-starch corn price spread arbitrage portfolio ekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, kwaye bathathe ekupheleni kuka-Agasti phezulu njengelahleko yokuyeka.
iqanda

Amaxabiso amabala ayaqhubeka ehla
Ngokutsho kwedatha yeZhihua, ixabiso lamaqanda kulo lonke ilizwe laqhubeka liwa, kunye nexabiso eliphakathi kwiindawo eziphambili zokuvelisa eziwela nge-0.04 yuan / Jin kunye nexabiso eliphakathi kwiindawo zokuthengisa eziphambili eziwela nge-0.13 yuan / Jin.Ukubeka iliso kurhwebo kubonisa ukuba abarhwebi kulula ukufumana iimpahla kwaye bacotha ukuhambisa iimpahla.Imeko yorhwebo iyonke iphuculwe kancinane xa kuthelekiswa nosuku lwangaphambili.Uluhlu lwabarhwebi luphantsi, kwaye luyaqhubeka nokunyuka kancinci xa kuthelekiswa nosuku lwangaphambili.Abarhwebi 'bebearish ulindelo buthathaka, ingakumbi eMpuma China nakumazantsi-ntshona China Bearish ulindelo zinamandla.Ixabiso lamaqanda liqhubekile nokuhla ekuseni, liphinde laphindaphindeka ngokuthe ngcembe emva kwemini, kwaye livalwe ngokukhawuleza.Ngokumalunga nexabiso lokuvala, ikhontrakthi ngoJanuwari yenyuka nge-95 yuan, inkontileka ngoMeyi yanda nge-45 yuan, kwaye isivumelwano ngoSeptemba sasisondele.Ukusuka kuhlalutyo lwemarike, sinokubona ukuba ixabiso lendawo yamaqanda liye laqhubeka lihla ngokukhawuleza kwixesha elizayo njengoko licwangcisiwe, kwaye ukuhla kwexabiso lexesha elizayo kungaphantsi kwexabiso lendawo, kwaye isaphulelo sexabiso sangaphambili siye sajika. ibe yiprimiyamu, ebonisa ukuba ulindelo lwemarike lutshintshile, oko kukuthi, ukusuka kulindelo olubonisa ukuhla kwexabiso lendawo ephezulu kwixesha elidlulileyo ukuya kulindelo lokunyuka ngaphambi koMnyhadala waseNtwasahlobo kwixesha elizayo.Ukususela kumbono wokusebenza kweemarike, imarike inokulindeleka ukuba ibe malunga ne-4000 njengendawo ephantsi yexabiso likaJanuwari.Kule meko, kucetyiswa ukuba abatyali-mali balinde kwaye babone.
Ihagu ephilayo

Qhubeka uwa
Ngokwedatha ye-zhuyi.com, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo leehagu eziphilayo laliyi-14.38 yuan / kg, 0.06 yuan / kg ngaphantsi kosuku oludlulileyo.Ixabiso leehagu laqhubeka liwa ngaphandle kwengxoxo.Sifumene iindaba ngale ntsasa ukuba ixabiso lokuthenga amashishini okuxhela lehle nge-0.1 yuan / kg.Ixabiso eNyakatho-mpuma yeChina liye laphuka kwi-7, kwaye ixabiso eliphambili li-14 yuan / kg.Ixabiso leehagu eMpuma yeChina lehla, kwaye ixabiso leehagu kwezinye iindawo ngaphandle kweShandong lalingaphezulu kwe-14.5 yuan / kg.I-Henan e-Central China iholele ukuhla, phantsi kwe-0.15 yuan / kg.Amachibi amabini azinzile okwethutyana, kwaye ixabiso eliqhelekileyo yi-14.3 yuan / kg.Emazantsi eTshayina, ixabiso lehla nge-0.1 yuan / kg, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo laseGuangdong naseGuangxi laliyi-14.5 yuan / kg, kwaye iHainan yayiyi-14 yuan / kg.Umzantsi-ntshona wehle nge-0.1 yuan / kg, iSichuan kunye neChongqing 15.1 yuan / kg.Ibali legolide, isilivere kunye neshumi lifana nje neli.Akukho nkxaso ilungileyo kwixabiso lexesha elifutshane.Kuyinyani ukuba kukho ukwanda kweentengiso.Amashishini okuxhela athatha ithuba lemeko kwaye ukwanda akubonakali.Kulindeleke ukuba ixabiso leehagu liqhubeke nokuwa.
Ukunika amandla
amalahle ngomphunga

Ukuvala indawo yePort, ukufowuna ngexabiso eliphezulu
Ngaphantsi koxinzelelo lweendaba ezifana ne-atmosphere emnyama jikelele ehlwempuzekileyo kunye nesiqinisekiso sokubonelela ngemigaqo-nkqubo, ikamva lamalahle aguquguqukayo litshintshile ngokukhawuleza izolo, kunye nekhontrakthi engundoqo ye-01 evala i-635.6 kwi-traderation yasebusuku, kwaye umehluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-1-5 uyancipha ukuya kwi-56.4.Ngokubhekiselele kwimarike yendawo, echaphazelekayo yiNkongolo yeSizwe ye-19 ezayo ye-Communist Party yaseChina, ezinye imigodi evulekileyo e-Shaanxi nase-Shanxi iyekile imveliso kunye nokunciphisa imveliso.Nangona izithintelo zokuqalisa izixhobo eziqhumayo ziye zaphakanyiswa kwi-Inner Mongolia, ukunikezelwa kweendawo zokuvelisa kusenzima, kwaye ixabiso lamalahle kwi-pithead liyaqhubeka nokunyuka.Kumazibuko ixabiso lamalahle lisekwizinga eliphezulu.Ngenxa yeendleko eziphezulu kunye nokuqwalaselwa kweengozi zemarike zexesha elide, abarhwebi abanamdla wokulayisha iimpahla, kwaye iqondo lokwamkelwa kweenkampani ezisezantsi kwixabiso eliphezulu langoku alikho phezulu.I Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal umphunga amalahle + 0-702 yuan / ton.

Kwiindaba, iKomishoni yoPhuhliso kunye noHlaziyo kutshanje ikhuphe isaziso sokuqinisekisa ukuthuthwa kwamalahle, umbane, i-oyile kunye negesi, isithi onke amaphondo, imimandla ezimeleyo kunye nezixeko kunye namashishini achaphazelekayo kufuneka aqinise ukubekwa kweliso okuguquguqukayo kunye nohlalutyo lwemveliso yamalahle kunye. imfuno yezothutho, ukufumana kwangexesha kunye nokulungelelanisa ukusombulula iingxaki ezibalaseleyo ekuboneleleni, kwaye sizame ukuqinisekisa unikezelo lwamalahle oluzinzileyo ngaphambi nasemva kweNkongolo yeSizwe ye-19 yeQela lamaKomanisi laseTshayina.

Uluhlu lwamazibuko asemantla luphinde lwaphindaphindeka, ngomndilili wothutho lwemihla ngemihla weetoni ezingama-575000, umndilili wokuhanjiswa koololiwe mihla le kumthamo weetoni ezingama-660000, uluhlu lwezixhobo zezibuko + 8-5.62 yezigidi zeetoni, uluhlu lweetoni zeCaofeidian – 30 ukuya kwi-3.17 yezigidi zeetoni, kunye uluhlu lwe-Jingtang Port ye-SDIC + 4 ukuya kwi-1.08 yezigidi zeetoni.

Izolo, ukusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kwezityalo zombane kuphinde kwaphindaphindeka.Amaqela amathandathu amakhulu anamandla onxweme adle iitoni ezingama-730000 zamalahle, netoni ye-9.83 yezigidi zeetoni zamalahle esitokhweni kunye neentsuku eziyi-13.5 zokugcina amalahle.

Isalathiso somthwalo wamalahle onxweme lwaseTshayina sinyuke nge-0.01% ukuya kwi-1172 izolo
Ngokubanzi, iintlanganiso ezibalulekileyo ukususela ngoSeptemba ukuya ku-Oktobha kunye nokukhuselwa kokusingqongileyo / ukuhlolwa kokhuseleko kwiindawo zemveliso kunokuqhubeka nokukhawulela ukukhutshwa kokunikezelwa.Nangona ukusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kwezityalo zamandla ezisezantsi kwehlile, kusekho kwinqanaba eliphezulu, kwaye inkxaso yendawo yomelele.Kwimarike yexesha elizayo, ikhontrakthi ye-01 ihambelana nexesha eliphakamileyo lokufudumala, kodwa kukho uxinzelelo lokubeka umthamo wokutshintsha ngexesha, kwaye uxinzelelo oluphezulu lubonakala.Sifanele sinikele ingqalelo kumoya jikelele wemarike ejikelezileyo, izinga lokuhla lokusetyenziswa kwemihla ngemihla kunye nokukhululwa komthamo wemveliso ophambili.
PTA

Ukuveliswa kwePolyester kunye nokuthengisa ngokubanzi, ukusebenza okubuthathaka kwe-PTA
Izolo, i-atmosphere yempahla yayingekho kakuhle, i-PTA yayibuthathaka, kwaye i-contract ye-01 eyintloko ivaliwe kwi-5268 ngobusuku bokuthengisa, kwaye umehluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-1-5 yandiswa ukuya kwi-92. Ukuthengiswa kweemarike kunomthamo omkhulu, ababoneleli abaqhelekileyo ngokukodwa ukuthenga iimpahla zendawo, ezinye iifektri zepolyester zifumene ii-odolo, isiseko semarike siyaqhubeka nokuncipha.Ngemini, eyona ndawo iphambili kunye ne-01 Contract yathethathethana ngesiseko sentengiselwano ngesaphulelo sama-20-35, irisithi yendawo yokugcina impahla kunye ne-01 yesivumelwano semvumelwano ngesaphulelo sama-30;emini, i-5185-5275 yathatyathwa, i-5263-5281 yaziswa kwi-transaction, kunye ne-5239 irisiti yokugcina impahla yathengiswa.

Izolo, i-quotation ye-PX yabuyela emva kokutshatyalaliswa, kwaye i-CFR yanikezelwa kwi-847 USD / T (- 3) ngobusuku e-Asia, kwaye umrhumo wokucubungula wawujikeleze i-850. I-PX ibike i-840 USD / T ngo-Oktobha kunye ne-852 USD / T ngoNovemba.Kwixesha elizayo, i-PX yasekhaya inokuthi igcinwe, kodwa akulindelekanga ukuba iphele.

Ngokubhekiselele kwiplanti ye-PTA, ixesha lokulungiswa kwesethi ye-PTA yeplanti kunye nemveliso yonyaka yeetoni ze-1.5 yezigidi kwiPhondo laseJiangsu landiswe malunga neentsuku ezi-5;inqanawa yokuqala ye-PX yeshishini le-PTA e-Huabin No.1 umgca wokuvelisa ufikile eHong Kong kutshanje, kodwa imicimbi yetanki yokugcina ayizange iphunyezwe ngokupheleleyo, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba iqale ngoNovemba;Ishishini le-PTA kwiPhondo laseFujian lisayine isivumelwano sohlengahlengiso, kwaye inkqubo yokuqalisa inokukhawuleziswa ngelo xesha, kwaye isicwangciso sokuqala kukuqalisa kwakhona ukuqaliswa kwenxalenye yomthamo wemveliso kwikota yesine.

Kwicala elisezantsi, imveliso yonke kunye nokuthengiswa kwe-Jiangsu kunye ne-Zhejiang i-polyester yarn yayisekho ngokubanzi izolo, kunye nomyinge oqikelelwayo kwi-60-70% malunga ne-3: 30 pm;ukuthengiswa kwepolyester ejikeleza ngokuthe ngqo yayiyi-avareji, kwaye umlambo wawufuna nje ukuzaliswa, uninzi lwemveliso kunye neentengiso zazijikeleze i-50-80%.

Ngokubanzi, ukugcinwa kwezityalo ze-PTA ukusuka kuSeptemba ukuya ku-Oktobha, kudibaniswa ne-polyester ephantsi yoluhlu kunye nomthwalo ophezulu, ukubonelela kwexesha elifutshane kunye nesakhiwo semfuno sisaxhaswa.Nangona kunjalo, kwinkontileka yexesha elizayo ye-01, inkxaso ye-PX kwicala leendleko yayibuthathaka kwikota yesine.Ngaphantsi koxinzelelo ukusuka ngoNovemba ukuya kuDisemba kwezixhobo zayo ezitsha nezindala, kwakunzima ukugcina iindleko eziphezulu zokucwangcisa, kwaye i-PTA callback pressure yahlala.Kufuneka sinikele ingqalelo kumoya jikelele wemarike yempahla yorhwebo, imveliso yepolyester esezantsi kunye nentengiso kunye notshintsho lwempahla kunye namaxabiso eoli kumazwe ngamazwe.
I-Tianjiao

Irabha yaseShanghai 1801 inokuzinza kwixesha elifutshane
Ngokuphathelele ukuhla kutshanje (1) 1801 ixabiso esasazeke ukuhlehla esebenzayo, idatha ukususela ngo-Agasti yayingaphantsi kunokulindela ixesha elide, eqinisekisa imfuno buthathaka izikhundla ezimfutshane (2) ipleyiti icala lonikezelo buthathaka.(3) Kwishishini le-rubber, uninzi lwezithuba ezimfutshane kwi-disk configuration, iiseti ezingezona eziqhelekileyo, iindlela ezintathu ukuya okufanayo, okubangela ukuba iintsuku ze-11 zokurhweba zibuyele kumanqaku angama-800.2. Ngexesha elifutshane, ndicinga ukuba i-14500-15000 iya kuhlala kwaye ibuyele kwakhona ukuze ibone yonke imveliso yoshishino kunye nomnyama.

PE?

Phambi komnyhadala, imfuno yokulungiswa kwempahla isafuna ukukhutshwa, kwaye ukuxhonywa kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kujonge phezulu kuyanda kwaye umoya wemveliso ujika ube buthathaka, kwaye kusekho uxinzelelo kwixesha elifutshane.

Nge-21 kaSeptemba, ixabiso le-LLD ex yefektri yaseSinopec eMntla China, eMpuma China, kumbindi weTshayina, iPetroChina, iMpuma yeChina, uMzantsi China, uMzantsi-ntshona weTshayina kunye noMntla-ntshona weChina wehliswa nge-50-200 yuan / ton, kunye nemarike esezantsi. ixabiso e North China wawa umva 9350 yuan / ton (ishishini amalahle imichiza).Okwangoku, i-l1801 ilitha yamanzi kuMntla we-China yathengiswa kwi-170 yuan / T. Ixabiso le-factory ex ye-petrochemical plant lancitshiswa kwindawo enkulu.Kwakukho abarhwebi abaninzi ukuba bathumele iimpahla ngexabiso lemarike eguquliweyo, kunye nenjongo yokufumana ezantsi yayiyinto eqhelekileyo, Nangona kunjalo, imfuno yempahla ephantsi inyukile, kwaye uxinzelelo kwicala lendawo lusahleli;Ukongeza, ngoSeptemba 20, iCFR Far East ixabiso eliphantsi elilingana ne-RMB 9847 / T, imarike yangaphandle ijinga phantsi ukuya kwi-327 yuan / T, kwaye ixabiso lendawo lisajonge phantsi ukuya kwi-497 yuan / T. inkxaso yangaphandle iya kuqhubeka nokuchaphazela umthamo wokungenisa elizweni ngo-Oktobha;ngokwemiqathango yomahluko wexabiso leemveliso ezinxulumeneyo, umahluko wexabiso phakathi kwe-hd-lld kunye ne-ld-lld yi-750 yuan / T kunye ne-650 yuan / T ngokulandelelana, kunye neemveliso ezinxulumene nepleyiti Uxinzelelo lweFace luyaqhubeka lula, i-arbitrage engekho emgangathweni. amathuba asemancinci.Ngokubanzi, ngokwembono yokusasazeka kwexabiso, inkxaso enokubakho yeemarike zangaphandle iye yaqiniswa, uxinzelelo kwiimveliso ezihambelanayo luye lwaqhubeka lula, kwaye uxinzelelo lwecala luye lwancipha ngokuthe ngcembe ngokuwa kwamaxabiso.Nangona ukwehla okubukhali kwamaxabiso exesha elizayo kuqhubeleka ukubamba imfuno yexesha elifutshane ngenxa yokuncipha kwesikali se-US Federal Reserve kunye nokuncipha kwemeko yorhwebo ngokubanzi, imfuno yempahla elungele iiholide kusenokwenzeka ukuba ikhululwe.

Ukususela kumbono wokubonelela kunye nemfuno, i-inventory yePetroChina yaqhubeka iwa malunga neetoni ze-700000 izolo, kwaye i-petrochemicals iqhubekile nokuthengisa inzuzo kwi-inventory ngaphambi komthendeleko.Ukongeza, ukukhutshwa okubekwe kwindawo enye kwendawo yokuqinisa uthango kwangethuba, kukhatshwa buthathaka obutsha nje bomoya omkhulu kunye nempahla yorhwebo, kwandisa uxinzelelo lwexeshana.Nangona kunjalo, ezi ziphumo zibi ziya kugaywa ngokuthe ngcembe ekwehleni kwexabiso kwangoko.Ukongezelela, kukho imfuno yokulungiswa kwempahla phambi komthendeleko kwi-downstream kwikamva elikufutshane Emva kokuzinzisa, ukufunwa kwemfuno kuya kubonakala.Ukongeza, ukuguqulwa kwangaphakathi nangaphandle kuya kwandiswa, uxinzelelo kwiimveliso ezingezizo ezisemgangathweni ziya kukhululeka, kwaye uxinzelelo lwebala luya kugaywa ngokuthe ngcembe yimarike, kwaye kusekho amathuba okuba imfuno iya kuphinda ithathe kwakhona. ixesha lamva (ukugcina impahla phambi komthendeleko).Ke ngoko, kucetyiswa ukuba silinde ithuba lokuvavanywa kwetyala elikhanyayo ngaphambi komthendeleko kwaye sibambe izikhundla ezimfutshane ngononophelo kwinqanaba lokuqala.Kuqikelelwa ukuba uluhlu oluphambili lwexabiso le-l1801 yi-9450-9650 yuan / ton.

PP?

Umoya omkhulu kunye nempahla yorhwebo ibuthathaka, ukuqalisa kwakhona uxinzelelo lwesixhobo kunye nenkxaso yokwahluka kwexabiso, imfuno yesitokhwe, ukuthambekela okulumkileyo kwePP

Ngomhla wama-21 kuSeptemba, amaxabiso emveliso yasekhaya yaseSinopec eNyakatho China, eMzantsi China kunye nemimandla yasePetroChina yaseMzantsi China yancitshiswa nge-200 yuan / ton, ixabiso lemarike elisezantsi eMpuma yeChina laqhubeka liwela kwi-8500 yuan / ton, ukunyuka kwexabiso. ye pp1801 kwibala lase-East China licuthelwe ukuya kwi-110 yuan / T, ixabiso lekamva laliphantsi koxinzelelo, abarhwebi baye banyusa ukuthunyelwa kokupakisha, i-bargains esezantsi yayifuneka nje ukuthenga, umthombo wexabiso eliphantsi wetyiswa, kunye noxinzelelo lwendawo luye lwakhululeka. Ixabiso lokugqibela laqhubeka libuyela kwi-8100 yuan / ton, ixabiso lenkxaso yomgubo lalijikeleze i-8800 yuan / ton, kwaye umgubo wawungenanzuzo, ngoko enye inkxaso iya kubonakala ngokuthe ngcembe.Ukongeza, nge-20 kaSeptemba, i-CFR Far East ephantsi-isiphelo sangaphandle ixabiso le-RMB lehla kancinci ukuya kwi-9233 yuan / ton, i-pp1801 yaguqulelwa kwi-623 yuan / ton, kwaye isitokhwe sangoku saguqulelwa kwi-733 yuan / ton.Ifestile yokuthumela ngaphandle ivuliwe, kwaye inkxaso yangaphandle iyaqhubeka isomeleza.Ukususela kumbono wokusasazeka kwexabiso, isiseko sihlala siphantsi, ukunikezelwa kwempahla kuqinisiwe, kwaye indawo ibuyele emva, ecinezela imarike.Kwixesha elizayo elingekude, abarhwebi baye bandisa imizamo yabo yokuthumela, kwaye uxinzelelo lwexesha elifutshane luye lwanda.Nangona kunjalo, ngokulungiswa kwexabiso, uxinzelelo lwe-aftermarket lunokuthi luncitshiswe ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye ukuzimisela okusezantsi kokufumana iimpahla kuye kwaphindaphinda.Ukongezelela, zombini iphaneli kunye nebala liye laqhubeka lixhoma phantsi kwimarike yangaphandle ngomda omkhulu, kwaye iphaneli nayo ikufuphi nePowder endaweni yenkxaso, isenzo esipheleleyo sinobuthathaka, kunye nenkxaso yokwahluka kwexabiso nayo yomelezwa. .

Ngokwembono yobonelelo kunye nemfuno, izinga lokugcinwa kweplanti yePP lizinzisiwe okwethutyana ukuya kwi-14.55% kwaye umlinganiselo wokuzoba uzinzisiwe okwethutyana ukuya kuma-28.23% izolo.Nangona kunjalo, i-Shenhua Baotou, iShijiazhuang Refinery kunye ne-Haiwei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. banezicwangciso zokuqalisa kwakhona kwixesha elizayo elingekude.Ukongeza, umthamo omtsha wemveliso uya kukhutshwa ngokuthe ngcembe (Ningmei isigaba III, Yuntianhua (600096, Ukongeza, okwangoku, isiseko sisephantsi, kwaye unikezelo lwempahla esisigxina 01 ikhontrakthi ngokuthe ngcembe wabuyela kwindawo. Noko ke. Le nxalenye yoxinzelelo iye yatyiswa ngokuhla kwexabiso.Kutsha nje, imfuno yokunitha ngeplastiki iye yanyuka kwinqanaba eliphantsi.Imfuno iyonke yexesha lonyaka ayizange ibonakaliswe.Ukongezelela, kukho imfuno yokulungiswa kwempahla ngaphambili. uMthendeleko we-11. Okwangoku, i-PP iya kuba yingcinezelo kwindawo yebala Qhubeka ukugaya umdlalo phakathi kwexesha lokuphindaphinda kwemfuno kunye nokugaya, ngoko ke i-disk yexesha elifutshane okanye ngokulumkisa ixesha elifutshane, igxininise kwinkxaso yokubuyisela imfuno. Kuqikelelwa ukuba uluhlu lwamaxabiso lwanamhlanje lwepp1801 luyi-8500-8650 yuan / ton.
imethanoli

I-MEG iwile, inzuzo ye-olefin iphantsi kunye nendawo yesaphulelo, indawo yemveliso iqinile, i-methanol imfutshane ilumkile

Indawo: ngoSeptemba 21, ixabiso lendawo ye-methanol lanyuka kwaye lawa kunye, apho ixabiso eliphantsi le-Taicang laliyi-2730 yuan / ton, ixabiso lendawo yeShandong, iHenan, iHebei, i-Inner Mongolia kunye ne-mazantsi-ntshona ye-China. 2670 (- 200), 2700 (- 200), 2720 (- 260), 2520 (- 500 imithwalo) kunye 2750 (- 180 imithwalo) yuan / ton, kunye nexabiso eliphantsi lempahla ehanjiswayo kwindawo yemveliso yayingama-2870- 3020 yuan / ton, kunye nemveliso kunye nokuthengisa arbitrage window yavalwa ngokupheleleyo 01 izibini Taicang waqhubeka ukuxhoma phezulu ukuya 32 yuan / ton.Ukuqwalasela ukuvalwa okuqhubekayo kwefestile ye-arbitrage yemveliso kunye nokuthengisa, oku ngokungathandabuzekiyo kunenkxaso engathanga ngqo ye-port spot kunye nediski;

Ngaphakathi nangaphandle umahluko ixabiso: ngoSeptemba 20, CFR China indawo RMB ixabiso lehle kwakhona ukuya 2895 yuan / ton (kubandakanywa 50 port iintlawulo ezahlukeneyo), ma801 inverted ixabiso langaphandle ukuya 197 yuan / T, East China indawo inverted ixabiso langaphandle ukuya 165 yuan / T, kunye nenkxaso yemarike yangaphandle yendawo yasekhaya kunye nediski yomelezwa.

Iindleko: ixabiso lamalahle e-Ordos (600295, iyunithi yokuxilongwa) kunye ne-5500 yamalahle e-dakakou e-Jining yePhondo laseShandong yayiyi-391 kunye ne-640 ye-yuan / itoni izolo, kunye neendleko ezihambelana nomgangatho wephaneli yayingu-2221 kunye ne-2344 yuan / ton.Ukongeza, iindleko ze-methanol zentloko yegesi ye-Sichuan Chongqing yayiyi-1830 yuan / ton eMpuma yeChina, kwaye igesi ye-oven ye-coke eMntla China yayiyi-2240 yuan / ton eMpuma yeChina;

Imfuno ekhulayo: ngokwemirhumo yokucubungula idisk, iPP + MEG yawa kwakhona kwi-2437 yuan / ton, isekwizinga eliphezulu.Nangona kunjalo, i-disk kunye neendleko zokucubungula indawo ye-pp-3 * ma yawa kwakhona kwi-570 kunye ne-310 yuan / T. izolo, i-disk ye-Meg yawa ngokukhawuleza, yandisa uxinzelelo olulethwa yi-PP ngokufihla;

Ngokubanzi, amaxabiso exesha elizayo aqhubeka ehla ngokukhawuleza izolo, ngokukodwa ngenxa yokunciphisa i-MEG kunye ne-Federal Reserve, okubangelwa ukuhla okubukhali kwi-atmosphere yempahla yonke.Ukongeza, i-PP isajongene noxinzelelo lomthamo omtsha wemveliso, ukuqalisa kwakhona isixhobo kunye nokuphuma kwendawo yokuqina kwedisk ngexesha elifutshane.Nangona kunjalo, kukho imiqondiso yokuncipha kancinci koxinzelelo olusisiseko, kwaye ixabiso lendawo lisaqinile, kunye nokwandiswa kwendawo egqunyiweyo yediski, kunye nokupaka okucwangcisiweyo kwezixhobo zaseBrunei Kanye nenkxaso elungileyo emva kokuqinisekiswa kwamaxwebhu olawulo lwaselwandle, I-inventri yamazibuko ase-East China nayo yawa kwinqanaba eliphezulu kule veki.Kulumkile ukuba ube mfutshane kwixesha elifutshane, kwaye akukhuthazwa ukugxotha okufutshane.Kuqikelelwa ukuba uluhlu lwexabiso lemihla ngemihla le-ma801 yi-2680-2750 yuan / ton.
i-oyile endala

Ujoliso kwimarike OPEC jmmc intlanganiso yenyanga

Iindaba zemarike kunye nedatha ebalulekileyo

Ikamva leoli ekrwada ye-WTI ngoNovemba ivalile i-0.14 yeedola, okanye i-0.28%, ukuya kwi-50.55 yeedola / umphanda.Ikamva leoli ekrwada ka-Brent kaNovemba liphakame i-0.14 yeedola, okanye i-0.25%, ukuya kwi-56.43 yeedola / umphanda.I-NYMEX ye-Okthobha ye-petroli yexesha elizayo ivaliwe nge-$ 1.6438 / galon.I-NYMEX ye-Okthobha yokufudumeza ikusasa leoli ivaliwe nge-$ 1.8153 / gallon.

2. Kuxelwe ukuba intlanganiso yolawulo lokunciphisa imveliso kulindeleke ukuba ibanjelwe eVienna ngo-4:00 emva kwemini ngexesha laseBeijing ngoLwesihlanu, isingathwe yiKuwait kwaye izinyaswe ngamagosa avela eVenezuela, eAlgeria, eRussia nakwamanye amazwe.Intlanganiso iza kuxoxa ngemiba efana nokwandiswa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso kunye nokubeka iliso kuthunyelo kumazwe angaphandle ukuvavanya izinga lokuphunyezwa kokunciphisa, iReuters ibike.Nangona kunjalo, ummeli we-OPEC uthe okwangoku, onke amazwe awazange afikelele kwisivumelwano malunga nokwandiswa kwesivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso, kwaye yonke into isamele ixoxwe.

Umphathiswa wamandla waseRashiya: I-OPEC kunye namazwe angewona i-OPEC aya kuxoxa ngombandela wokulawulwa kwe-oyile ekrwada kwintlanganiso yaseVienna.Ngokweendaba zentengiso, iKomiti yobuGcisa ye-OPEC yacebisa ukuba abaphathiswa bamazwe avelisa i-oyile kufuneka bajonge ukuthunyelwa kwe-oli ekrwada kumazwe angaphandle njengesongezelelo kwisivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso.

4. I-Goldman Sachs: kulindeleke ukuba iintetho ze-OPEC aziyi kwandisa isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso yeoli, kodwa kusekude kakhulu ukwenza isigqibo.Kukholelwa ukuba ikomiti yokulawula yokunciphisa imveliso yeoli ye-OPEC ayiyi kucebisa ukwandisa isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso kule veki.Izinto ezisisiseko esomeleleyo zangoku zixhasa ukuphinda kukaGoldman ulindelo lwakhe lokuba ukuhanjiswa kweoyile kuya kunyuka ukuya kuthi ga kwi-58 yeedola / umgqomo ekupheleni konyaka.

I-Tankertracker: Ukuthunyelwa kwe-oyile ekrwada ye-OPEC kulindeleke ukuba yehle nge-140000 B / D ukuya kwi-23.82 yezigidi ze-B / D ukusuka nge-7 ka-Okthobha.

L. ingqiqo yotyalo-mali

Kutshanje, imakethi igxininise kwintlanganiso yenyanga ye-jmmc ye-OPEC, kwaye imiba emininzi eqwalaselwa ngakumbi yimarike yile: 1. Ingaba isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso siya kwandiswa;2. Ukomeleza njani ukuphunyezwa kunye nokubekwa kweliso kwisivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso, kunye nokuba ingaba izalathisi zokuthumela ngaphandle ziya kubekwa iliso na;3. Ingaba iNigeria kunye neLibya ziya kujoyina iqela lokunciphisa imveliso.Ngokubanzi, ngenxa yokugcinwa kwe-oyile kulo nyaka, i-OPEC ayinakucinga ukwandisa isivumelwano sokunciphisa imveliso ngexesha langoku, kodwa akucaci ukuba intlanganiso yesikhashana iya kubanjwa kwikota yokuqala yonyaka ozayo. ukwandisa ukucuthwa kwemveliso.Siqikelela ukuba intlanganiso ye-jmmc namhlanje iya kugxila kwindlela yokomeleza ukongamela nokuphunyezwa kokunciphisa imveliso.Nangona kunjalo, kusekho iingxaki ezininzi zobuchwepheshe ekufuneka zisonjululwe kulawulo lomthamo wokuthumela ngaphandle.Okwangoku, ukuveliswa kweNigeria kunye neLibya akuzange kubuyiselwe ngokupheleleyo kwinqanaba eliqhelekileyo, ngoko ke amathuba okunciphisa imveliso ayinakuba mkhulu.
itela

Imakethi yorhwebo iphantsi, ukuhanjiswa kwe-asphalt kuphuculwe
Isishwankathelo sokuJonga:
Imakethi yekamva leemveliso zexesha elizayo ibonise indlela ehlayo izolo, ngokuwa kwamalahle kunye ne-ferrosilicon ehle ngaphezulu kwe-5%, iimveliso zemichiza ziwa ngokubanzi, i-methanol ngaphezulu kwe-4%, irabha kunye ne-PVC ngaphezulu kwe-3%.Ikamva le-asphalt elikhethekileyo ligcine indlela ehlayo ngexesha lokurhweba emini.Ixabiso lokuvala isivumelwano esiphambili se-1712 izolo emva kwemini yayiyi-2438 yuan / ton, eyayiyi-34 yuan / itoni engaphantsi kwexabiso lokuhlalisa izolo, kunye nokuncipha kwe-1.38% yezandla ze-5500.Oku kuhla kuchatshazelwa ngakumbi yimo yemalike yempahla yorhwebo, kwaye akusekho ukuwohloka kwesiseko se asphalt.

Imarike yendawo yahlala izinzile, kunye namaxabiso entengiselwano aqhelekileyo angama-2400-2500 yuan / iitoni kwimarike yaseMpuma China, 2350-2450 yuan / toni kwimarike yaseShandong kunye ne-2450-2550 yuan / toni kwimarike yaseMzantsi China.Okwangoku, emva kokuphela kohlolo lokusingqongileyo, ulwakhiwo lwendlela esezantsi lubuyiselwa ngokuthe ngcembe.Emva kokuphela kolawulo lokusingqongileyo e-Shandong, ukuthunyelwa kwempahla yokucoca kuye kwaphucuka, kwaye ummandla wase-East China nawo ubuyela ngokuthe ngcembe.Nangona kunjalo, okwangoku, kukho imvula eninzi kule ndawo, kwaye umthamo awukakhululwa.ENyakatho yeChina, abahwebi basebenza kakhulu ekulungiseleleni iimpahla ngaphambi kweholide yoSuku lweSizwe, kwaye imeko yokuthunyelwa kwayo yonke ilungile Imeko yegesi ilungile, kwaye ukuthunyelwa ngokubanzi kuhamba kakuhle.Okwangoku, ixesha lokwakha emantla eTshayina liphantse libe yinyanga enye ukusuka phakathi ukuya kwiintsuku ezilishumi zokugqibela zikaOktobha.Impembelelo yokusingqongileyo ekwakhiweni kweendlela iyacotha, kwaye kufuneka kubekho umsebenzi okhawulezileyo kwixesha elizayo ukuxhasa imfuno ye-asphalt.Ngokusondela kweholide yoSuku lweSizwe, imeko yesitokhwe esisembindini e-Shandong, eHebei, emantla mpuma nakweminye imimandla ithe chu kancinci yadambisa uxinzelelo lwezixhobo zokucoca.Kwicala leendleko, i-asphalt yendawo iye yahlala kwindawo ehambelanayo.Emva kokuba ixabiso le-oyile ekrwada linyusiwe, inzuzo yethiyori kwindawo yokucokisa yehle nge-110 yuan ukuya kwi-154 yuan/toni kwiveki ephelileyo, kwaye isithuba sokuthoba ngakumbi uhlengahlengiso kwixabiso lendawo sincinci.Nangona kunjalo, kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba ngenxa yempembelelo yezinto ezikhuselweyo zokusingqongileyo kwicala lemfuno kunye nolawulo longcoliseko lomoya ebusika, imfuno yexesha elizayo ingaba ngaphantsi kunokulindelekileyo.Ukongeza, ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, amandla emveliso yokucoca i-asphalt kwimimandla eyahlukeneyo iya kwandiswa kakhulu, kwaye umthamo wemveliso wokucokisa i-asphalt uya kwandiswa kakhulu.

Lilonke, xa kuthelekiswa nemfuno ye-asphalt kwixesha eliphakamileyo lesiqhelo, kukho indawo encinci yokwehla okubukhali ngakumbi.Kulindeleke ukuba ngokubuyiselwa kolwakhiwo olusezantsi kwixa elizayo, kuya kubakho indawo yokukhula eyongezelelweyo.

Iingcebiso zeqhinga:
Ixabiso le-yuan engama-2500, i-bargain ixesha elide, nikela ingqalelo kutshintsho lokutshintsha kwexabiso lenyanga.

Umngcipheko weqhinga:
Ukuveliswa kwe-asphalt kugqithise, kwaye unikezelo luphelile, kwaye ixabiso le-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe liguquguquka kakhulu.

Iinketho zobungakanani
Ukuthengiswa ngokubanzi kokutya kweembotyi zesoya kunokuyeka ukuphumelela, kwaye ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kweswekile kuya kunyuka
Iinketho zokutya zeembotyi zesoya

Njengoko ikhontrakthi ephambili ngoJanuwari, ixabiso lexesha elizayo leembotyi zesoya laqhubeka liguquguquka ngoSeptemba 21, kwaye ixabiso lemihla ngemihla livaliwe kwi-2741 yuan / ton.Umthamo wokurhweba kunye nesikhundla sosuku kwakuyi-910000 kunye ne-1880000, ngokulandelanayo.

Umthamo wokurhweba kwiinketho zokutya zeembotyi zesoya wahlala uzinzile namhlanje, kunye nenani elipheleleyo le-11300 yezandla (i-unilateral, efanayo ngezantsi), kunye nesikhundla se-127700. NgoJanuwari, umthamo wekhontrakthi uphendule kwi-73% yazo zonke iinguqu zekhontrakthi kunye nesikhundla. kwi-70% yazo zonke izithuba zekontraka.Umda wesimo esimacala omabini wokhetho lokutya kweembotyi zesoya uye wanyenyiswa ukusuka kuma-300 ukuya kowama-2000, kwaye umsebenzi wentengiselwano yentengiso unyuke kakhulu.Umlinganiselo wesidlo seembotyi zesoya ubeke ivolumu yokukhetha ukufowuna umthamo wokhetho uhanjiswe kwi-0.52, kwaye umlinganiselo we-put option position yokufowunela indawo yokukhetha yagcinwa kwi-0.63, kwaye imvakalelo yahlala ingathathi hlangothi kwaye inethemba.Kulindeleke ukuba imakethi igcine uluhlu oluncinci lwe-oscillation ngaphambi kosuku lwesizwe.

Emva kokukhululwa kwe-USDA yenyanga yonikezelo kunye nengxelo yemfuno, ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kwaqhubeka ukwehla.NgoJanuwari, ixabiso lokusebenzisa ukutya kweembotyi zesoya kwikhontrakthi yexabiso elisicaba liye laya kwi-2750, ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kuqhubekile ukuhla ukuya kwi-16.94%, kwaye umahluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kunye neentsuku ezingama-60 zokuguquguquka kwembali kwandiswe ukuya kwi-1.83%.Emva kokukhutshwa kwe-USDA yenyanga yonikezelo kunye nengxelo yemfuno ngoSeptemba, imeko ebonisa ukuba ukuguquguquka okuguquguqukayo kuguquguquka kwimbali kunokufika esiphelweni, kwaye ixabiso ledisk kulindeleke ukuba ligcine ukuguquguquka okuncinci, kwaye ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kukwinqanaba elisezantsi ngokufanelekileyo. .Kucetyiswa ukuba indawo yokhetho olubanzi (m1801-c-2800 kunye ne-m1801-p-2600) inokuthengiswa inyathelo ngesinyathelo ukuthintela umngcipheko wokunyuka kokuguquguquka okuziswa ngeveki.Inzuzo kunye nelahleko yokuthengisa iinketho ezibanzi ze-span yi-2 Yuan / isabelo.
Iinketho zeswekile

Ixabiso lekhontrakthi enkulu yeJanuwari yekamva leswekile emhlophe yawa ngoSeptemba 21, kwaye ixabiso lemihla ngemihla livaliwe kwi-6135 yuan / ton.Umthamo wokurhweba wenkontileka kaJanuwari wawuyi-470000, kwaye isikhundla sasiyi-690000. Umthamo wokurhweba kunye nesikhundla sahlala sizinzile.

Namhlanje, inani elipheleleyo lokurhweba lweenketho zeswekile laliyi-6700 (ilinye icala, elifanayo ngezantsi), kwaye indawo epheleleyo yayiyi-64700. Umda we-unilateral we-sugar option wabuye waphumla ukusuka kwi-200 ukuya kwi-2000, kwaye umthamo wokurhweba kunye nesikhundla sokhetho sanda. ngokubalulekileyo.Okwangoku, umthamo wekhontrakthi ngoJanuwari wenze i-74% kwaye isikhundla sithatha i-57%.Umthamo wanamhlanje wokurhweba kwiinketho zeswekile PC_ Umlinganiselo ufudukele kwi-0.66, isikhundla PC_ Umlinganiselo uhleli ku-0.90, kwaye umsebenzi wokhetho lweswekile emhlophe wehla kwakhona_ Ukukwazi kwe-ratio ukuphendula kwiimvakalelo kulinganiselwe.

Okwangoku, iintsuku ezingama-60 zokuguquguquka kwembali yeswekile yi-11.87%, kwaye ukuguquguquka okuxeliweyo kweenketho zexabiso elisicaba ngoJanuwari kuye kwafikelela kwi-12.41%.Okwangoku, umahluko phakathi kokuguquguquka okuchaziweyo kunye nokuguquguquka kwembali yeenketho zexabiso elicaba ngoJanuwari kuncitshiswe kwi-0.54%.Ukuguquguquka kuyenyuka, kwaye umngcipheko wepotfoliyo yokubeka iyanda.Kuyacetyiswa ukuba ubambe indawo yokhetho lwesithuba esibanzi (thengisa sr801p6000 kunye sr801c6400) ngononophelo, kwaye uvune ixabiso lexesha lokhetho.Namhlanje, inzuzo kunye nelahleko yokuthengisa ipotifoliyo ebanzi (sr801p6000 kunye ne-sr801c6400) yi-4.5 yuan / isabelo.
TB

"Ukuncitshiswa kwesikali" uthuli luzinzile, isivuno semali yebhondi siye sanyuka saya eTshayina

Uphononongo lwemarike:
Ikamva le-Treasury bond liye laguquguquka lisezantsi imini yonke, uninzi lwavalwa, kwaye uluvo lwentengiso lwalungekho phezulu.Ikhontrakthi ephambili yeminyaka emihlanu ye-tf1712 ivale i-0.07% ephantsi kwi-97.450 yuan, kunye ne-9179 eninzi yevolumu yokurhweba, i-606 ngaphantsi kosuku lwangaphambili lokurhweba, kunye nezikhundla ze-64582, i-164 ngaphantsi kosuku lwangaphambili lokuthengisa.Inani lilonke lentengiselwano iikontraki ezintathu 9283, kunye nokuncipha 553, kunye nesikhundla iyonke 65486 izivumelwano zehle ngo-135. Inkontileka yeminyaka eli-10 engundoqo t1712 ivalwe phantsi 0.15% ukuya 94.97 yuan, kunye nengeniso ye-35365, ukwanda kwe-7621, kunye nokuncipha kwezandla ze-74 kwindawo ye-75017. Inani lilonke leentengiselwano zezivumelwano ezintathu zazingama-35586, ukwanda kwe-7704, kunye nesigxina se-76789 izivumelwano zehla nge-24.

Uhlalutyo lwemarike:
Ingxelo ye-FOMC ye-Federal Reserve yase-US ngoSeptemba ibonise ukuba ukuncitshiswa kwe-passive scale kwaqalwa ngo-Oktobha kulo nyaka, ngelixa izinga lenzala ye-benchmark lahlala lingatshintshi ukusuka kwi-1% ukuya kwi-1.25%.Kulindeleke ukuba izinga lenzala liphinde liphakanyiswe kwakhona kwi-2017, ekhokelela ekubeni imarike yoyiko lokuqiniswa kwemali kwixesha elifutshane.Isivuno se-US Treasury bonds siye sakhula ngokukhawuleza, kwaye imveliso ye-interbank cash bond market yachatshazelwa yi-conductivity, kwaye uluhlu lokunyuka lwandiswa.Kulindeleke ukuba iBhanki ePhakathi yaseChina iya kunciphisa izinga lokungathathi hlangothi kwebhanki ephakathi kwikota yesine, kodwa ayiyi kuchaphazeleka kukunyuka okuphakathi kwebhanki yaseChina.

Ithoni esisiseko yokugcina uzinzo ihlala ifana nangaphambili, kwaye inkunzi iyancipha imihla ngemihla: ibhanki ephakathi iqhube imisebenzi yokubuyisela umva ye-40 yezigidigidi iintsuku ezisi-7 kunye ne-20 yezigidigidi zeentsuku ze-28 ngoLwesine, kunye ne-bid yokuphumelela inzala. Amazinga ayeyi-2.45% kunye ne-2.75% ngokulandelanayo, eyayifana nexesha lokugqibela.Kwangolo suku lunye, bekukho ama-60 eebhiliyoni zeebhiliyoni zokuphinda kuthengwe ngokutsha, nto leyo eyayiphelisa ngokupheleleyo ukuvuthwa kwemali.Ibhanki evulelekileyo yokubiyela ibhanki ivuthwa iintsuku ezimbini ezilandelelanayo, igcina ithoni yozinzo njengangaphambili.Uninzi lwenzala yesibambiso serepo yeebhanki zehla, kwaye imali yehla kancinci.Nangona kunjalo, emva kokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwemali yokuhlawula amatyala, kwakungekabikho umdla wokurhweba kwimarike, ebonisa ukuba iimali zemarike zazisalumkile emva kokuqala kokunciphisa isikali se-Fed nangaphambi kokuphela kwekota ye-MPa yovavanyo.

Imfuno enamandla yeebhondi ze-CDB, imfuno ebuthathaka yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kweebhondi zebhanki: i-bid yokuphumelela isivuno se-3-year fixed interest bonds eyongezelelweyo ye-China Development Bank yi-4.1970%, i-bid multiple yi-3.75, i-bid yokuphumelela isivuno se-7-year fixed iibhondi ezongezelelweyo inzala yi-4.3486%, kwaye i-bid multiple yi-4.03.I-bid yokuphumelela isivuno se-3-year-fixed interest bond eyongezelelweyo yi-4.2801%, i-bid multiple yi-2.26, i-5-year fixed interest ibhondi eyongezelelweyo yi-4.3322%, i-bid multiple yi-2.21, i-10-year fixed bond eyongezelelweyo yi-4.3664%, i-bid multiple bond. yi 2.39.Iziphumo zebhidi kwimarike ephambili zahlulwe, kwaye imveliso yokuphumelela ibhidi yezibophelelo zesigaba ezibini zeBhanki yoPhuhliso yaseChina iphantsi kunoqikelelo lweBhanki yoPhuhliso lweSizwe yaseTshayina, kwaye imfuno yomelele.Nangona kunjalo, i-bid yokuphumelela isivuno sesigaba sesithathu sebhondi yokungenisa kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle iphezulu kakhulu kunoqikelelo lweebhondi zaseTshayina, kwaye imfuno ibuthathaka.

Iingcebiso zokusebenza:
I-US Federal Reserve's scale shrinking boots iphunyezwe ngokusemthethweni, kwaye i-Federal Reserve ibonise ukuma "kufutshane nokhozi kwaye kude neHobe".Nangona isivuno seebhondi zengxowa-mali yasekhaya siphezulu ngenxa yempembelelo ye-conductive yetyala lase-US, eyona nto iphikiswayo kwimalike yebhondi iseyimali yokuhlawula amatyala.Ibhanki enguvimba imisele uqingqo-mali oluzinzileyo nolungathathi hlangothi kwangentseni.Ngaphezu koko, ichatshazelwe luqikelelo lwezoqoqosho lwaseTshayina kwikota yesine, ibhanki ephakathi ayisayi kulandela i-feed ukunyusa amaxabiso enzala Ixesha lefuthe lomngcipheko wokuqhuba phesheya lilinganiselwe.Uninzi lwenzala yesibambiso serepo yeebhanki zehla, kwaye imali yehla kancinci.Nangona kunjalo, emva kokunciphisa uxinzelelo lwemali yokuhlawula amatyala, kwakungekabikho umdla wokurhweba kwimarike, ebonisa ukuba iimali zemarike zazisalumkile emva kokuqala kokunciphisa isikali se-Fed nangaphambi kokuphela kwekota ye-MPa yovavanyo.Gcina isiphelo sekota samatyala angaphambili amatyala asezantsi angatshintshwanga.

Ukuziphendulela: ulwazi olukule ngxelo luhlanganiswe kwaye luhlalutywe yi-Huatai futures, yonke into evela kwidatha epapashwe.Uhlalutyo lolwazi okanye izimvo ezichazwe kwingxelo azibandakanyi iingcebiso zotyalo-mali.Abatyali-mali baya kuthwala isigwebo esenziwe ngezimvo kwingxelo kunye nelahleko enokwenzeka.